The Cleveland Browns changed quarterbacks last week, and while it didn’t bring them a win it provided plenty of hope in the weeks to come.
The first realistic opportunity for Cleveland’s new-look offense will come against a battered Steelers defense, and with that we’ll explain in our Browns vs. Steelers predictions why Cleveland could wind up pushing for a much-needed second win on the season.
Read below for my free NFL picks for Sunday, October 12.
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Browns vs Steelers prediction
Browns vs Steelers Best bet: Browns +5.5 (-102)
The Cleveland Browns may not have won in rookie Dillon Gabriel’s debut last week, but they sure didn’t go down without a fight. Gabriel showcased the poise under pressure that brought him to the NFL, going 19-of-33 for 190 yards and two touchdowns.
He was sacked just twice, and he put up those numbers on one of the 10 best secondaries in football by DVOA.
Now, it’s not like that was some stellar game, and Cleveland did get to run on Minnesota’s weak run defense, but it was a great step in the right direction for an offense that has some talent. Pittsburgh brings a solid pass rush to this game, but it may be missing an injured Jalen Ramsey in the secondary on top of Malik Harrison, who’s now on IR.
I have enough faith in this Browns offense to believe in the road underdogs here. Not only has Gabriel flourished against pressure dating back to his Oregon days, but he’ll be throwing on a secondary that is ranked significantly lower than Minnesota’s, with the potential absence of Ramsey to boot.
On the opposite end, the Steelers love to run, given their passing attack has ranked fifth-worst in DVOA, and all this Browns team does is win up front. Whether it’s stopping the run or getting to the quarterback, they do it all, and now an elderly Aaron Rodgers will be sitting back there with pressure in his face and no run game to bail him out.
Browns vs Steelers same-game parlay
The Browns have a very specific game plan now that Gabriel is at the helm, and that’s short passes. It’s what the youngster was known for in college, and what he did last week – completing six passes to the Browns’ top short-yardage weapon in David Njoku.
The veteran tight end leads the team by a wide margin in targets inside 10 yards and should become a focal point of the offense moving forward.
It’s challenging to fill out a second leg, given that the offensive outlook for Pittsburgh looks bad and Cleveland’s is somewhat uncertain, but I think I’m comfortable taking Rodgers to go under 210 yards for a fourth straight week. The Browns’ pass rush should be unstoppable here against an underperforming line, and that should just about take him out of the game.
Browns vs Steelers SGP
- Browns +5.5
- David Njoku Over 3.5 receptions
- Aaron Rodgers Under 210.5 passing yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Big Benny!
We might be getting a bit crazy here by pairing some Steelers receivers with a Rodgers Under, but I do love Ben Skowronek in this spot. Sadly, this is the only way we can bet on him, but he’s now taking on a larger share of the snaps with Calvin Austin out and stepping into the slot where Cleveland has struggled.
We know Rodgers likes to throw the ball around the goal line, so it’s possible. As for DK Metcalf, well, he’s heading up against the third-worst team in the league by DVOA against the WR1 position and should benefit similarly from the Austin loss.
Browns vs Steelers SGP
- Cleveland Browns +5.5
- David Njoku Over 3.5 receptions
- Aaron Rodgers Under 210.5 passing yards
- Ben Skowronek anytime touchdown
- DK Metcalf Over 56.5 receiving yards
Browns vs Steelers odds
- Spread: Browns +6.5 (-110) | Steelers -6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Browns +260 | Steelers -325
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under 42.5 (-110)
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Browns vs Steelers trend to know
The Cleveland Browns have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in six of their last eight away games (+3.55 Units / 38% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Steelers.
How to watch Browns vs Steelers
| Location | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date | Sunday, October 12, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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