It's officially the time of year when half the league is locked into tight division races, and the other is staring a tropical vacation in the face.
The games are played all the same, and I pick a side for every Week 17 matchup in my ATS NFL picks below.
Week 17 NFL picks against the spread
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Cowboys vs  Commanders |
(-6.5) |
 Lions vs  Vikings |
(-6) |
 Broncos vs  Chiefs |
(-13) |
 Texans vs  Chargers |
(+2) |
 Ravens vs  Packers |
(+2.5) |
 Cardinals vs  Bengals |
(-7) |
 Seahawks vs  Panthers |
(+7) |
 Jaguars vs  Colts |
(-6.5) |
 Patriots vs  Jets |
(-13.5) |
 Steelers vs  Browns |
(-4) |
 Saints vs  Titans |
(+2.5) |
 Buccaneers vs  Dolphins |
(-5.5) |
 Giants vs  Raiders |
(-1) |
 Eagles vs  Bills |
(+2) |
 Bears vs  49ers |
(-3) |
 Rams vs  Falcons |
(+8) |
Lines courtesy of bet365 as of 12-23.
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Expert Week 17 NFL ATS picks
Cowboys vs. Commanders: Cowboys -6.5
The Commanders allowed 22 second-half points in their 11-point loss to the Eagles last week, and while the Cowboys are reeling, I trust their offense as much as any unit on the field in this game.
Lions vs. Vikings: Lions -6
While it's been a peculiar season for the Lions, they can still technically make the playoffs. J.J. McCarthy is hurt again, and we may have to watch Max Brosmer play football again. That's a bad thing for us, but a good thing for Detroit.
Broncos vs. Chiefs: Broncos -13
The Chiefs are down to Chris Oladokun under center, and they're catching an angry Broncos team still playing for their division, the No. 1 seed, and more. Lay the number.
Texans vs. Chargers: Texans +2
The most important matchup on the field will be L.A.'s offensive line against this Texans defensive front. That has me leaning on Houston for an eighth straight victory.
Ravens vs. Packers: Ravens +2.5
The Ravens are expecting Lamar Jackson back for this game, and he could do damage against a Micah Parsons-less Packers defense that's given up 56 combined points in back-to-back losses to the Broncos and Bears.
Cardinals vs. Bengals: Bengals -7
The Bengals are playing for nothing but Joe Burrow's future, and another spirited performance from this team could go a long way in that department.
Seahawks vs. Panthers: Panthers +7
I wouldn't call an upset in a game like this, but Carolina is now somehow leading the NFC South after last week's win over the Bucs. I'm also smelling a potential letdown after Seattle's dramatic win over the Rams.
Jaguars vs. Colts: Jaguars -6.5
Stock has never been higher for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars, who have won six in a row and just stomped the AFC-leading Broncos by two touchdowns. As fun as the Phillip Rivers experience has been, Jacksonville will pull away.
Patriots vs. Jets: Patriots -13.5
The Jets have lost by 23, 28, and 24 in their last three games. There's no need to overthink this.
Steelers vs. Browns: Steelers -4
There's a lot to like about how the Steelers have played the last three weeks, and the offense has averaged 28 points per game over that stretch. I'll lay the small number in this game.
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Saints vs. Titans: Titans +2.5
I wouldn't classify taking down the QB3 Chiefs as some shining achievement, but it does make this choice easier to stomach. Cam Ward has thrown just one interception over his last five games, which also helps.
Buccaneers vs. Dolphins: Buccaneers -5.5
Baker Mayfield & Co. are officially playing for their playoff lives, and I expect that to show in a game where the quarterback across from them is rookie Quinn Ewers making his second-ever start.
Giants vs. Raiders: Raiders -1
These teams are a combined 4-26, and yet, it's hard to imagine the Giants winning if the Raiders play anything like they did in their almost-upset over the Texans last week.
Eagles vs. Bills: Eagles +2
Super Bowl preview, anyone? I'll take the points with Philly after one of Saquon Barkley's best games of the year.
Bears vs. 49ers: 49ers -3
Brock Purdy is back, and the 49ers look as good as ever. I'll bank on that continuing while I wait for the shoe to drop for the Bears.
Rams vs. Falcons: Falcons +8
The Falcons have won back-to-back games, and I could actually see them winning this game outright if a couple of things go their way. The Rams could once again be without Davante Adams, and his missed red-zone prowess could very well be the difference.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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