The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have lost three games in a row and six of their last seven, but they still control their own destiny in the NFC South. They can set up a winner-take-all Week 18 matchup with the Carolina Panthers if both teams are victorious this week.
Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins are looking to play spoiler for their in-state rivals. They're coming off a 45-21 home loss to the Bengals, though, with Quinn Ewers taking over at quarterback.
My Buccaneers vs. Dolphins predictions are looking at Tampa Bay to limit Baker Mayfield’s passing responsibilities as road favorites.
Read on for the best NFL picks on Sunday, December 28.
Buccaneers vs Dolphins prediction
Buccaneers vs Dolphins Best bet: Baker Mayfield Under 31.5 passing attempts (-114)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield came out of the gates hot this season, but he’s cooled off along with the weather. Even with this game being in Florida, I’m looking at Mayfield to continue to be limited in the passing game.
Mayfield has completed fewer than 20 passes in 10 of 15 games this season, including in each of his last six contests. He did have 19 and 18 completions in the last four games, but he hasn’t really come close to this 31.5 number.
Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers got into the mid-20s in passing completions the past two weeks, but Mayfield isn’t nearly as trustworthy as they are. Tampa Bay should look to control the game on the ground as road favorites against the Miami Dolphins.
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Buccaneers vs Dolphins same-game parlay
We can’t use our best bet in a same-game parlay, so let’s fade Mayfield in his passing yards instead. He’s only averaging 209.6 passing yards per game and has gone under this number in eight of 15 games this season.
The Bucs should still be able to put up points, though, with Miami scoring enough to get us to the over.
Buccaneers vs Dolphins SGP
- Baker Mayfield Under 218.5 passing yards
- Buccaneers -5.5
- Over 44.5
Our big-ticket SGP: Achane brings life to Fins
Adding Mayfield's passing touchdowns to the over is trying to thread the needle a bit, but the odds reflect that here. And if the game is going to go over, the Dolphins are going to have to score a touchdown or two.
De'Von Achane leads the way with a dozen scores for Miami this season.
Buccaneers vs Dolphins SGP
- Baker Mayfield Under 218.5 passing yards
- Buccaneers -5.5
- Over 44.5
- Baker Mayfield Under 1.5 passing touchdowns
- De'Von Achane anytime touchdown
Buccaneers vs Dolphins odds
- Spread: Tampa Bay -5.5 (-112) | Miami +5.5 (-108)
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay -270 | Miami +220
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (-105) | Under 44.5 (-115)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Buccaneers vs Dolphins trend to know
The Miami Dolphins have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 20 games (+3.30 Units / 15% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Dolphins.
How to watch Buccaneers vs Dolphins
| Location | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| Date | Sunday, December 28, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Buccaneers vs Dolphins latest injuries
Buccaneers vs Dolphins weather
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