The NFL season is upon us, which means it's time to make our best Week 1 NFL Picks against the spread.
To kick things off on Thursday Night Football, we'll happily lay the points with the defending Super Bowl champions, but there are plenty of underdogs I believe can cover and possibly win outright.
Let's jump right in.
Week 1 NFL picks against the spread
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Cowboys vs  Eagles |
(-7.5) |
 Chiefs vs  Chargers |
(+3) |
 Buccaneers vs  Falcons |
(+2.5) |
 Bengals vs  Browns |
(-5.5) |
 Dolphins vs  Colts |
(+1.5) |
 Raiders vs  Patriots |
(+2.5) |
 Cardinals vs  Saints |
(-6.5) |
 Steelers vs  Jets |
(-2.5) |
 Giants vs  Commanders |
(-6.5) |
 Panthers vs  Jaguars |
(-3.5) |
 Titans vs  Broncos |
(-7.5) |
 49ers vs  Seahawks |
(+2.5) |
 Lions vs  Packers |
(+2.5) |
 Texans vs  Rams |
(+3) |
 Ravens vs  Bills |
(+1.5) |
 Vikings vs  Bears |
(-1.5) |
Lines courtesy of Fanduel as of 9-2.
Expert Week 1 NFL ATS picks
Cowboys vs. Eagles: Eagles (-7.5)
The Dallas Cowboys made headlines this summer for all the wrong reasons, and with Micah Parsons now out of the equation, the defense will suffer. The Philadelphia Eagles bring back the same corps from last year's Super Bowl-winning team, and I expect them to score a boatload of points. Lay the points with the Eagles at home.
Chiefs vs. Chargers: Chargers (+3)
Betting against the Chiefs never seems to go well for me, but here I am. I believe the Chargers will be able to run the ball effectively in this game, win the TOP battle, and Justin Herbert will make enough plays to win this game outright.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons: Falcons (+2.5)
I'm high on the Falcons this year in the NFC South, and it starts in Week 1 vs. the Bucs. Give me Atlanta's plethora of young offensive weapons over Baker Mayfield and an aging Mike Evans.
Bengals vs. Browns: Bengals (-5.5)
The Cincinnati Bengals need to find a way to win in Week 1. They're 1-4 over the last five seasons, including a 24-3 loss in 2023 to this same Cleveland Browns team. I believe in Joe Burrow this year, and the offense should score at will.
Dolphins vs. Colts: Dolphins (+1.5)
Daniel Jones or Tua Tagovailoa... who do you trust more? For me, the answer is easy.
Raiders vs. Patriots: Raiders (+2.5)
A lot of people I've talked to believe in the Patriots this year. I don't. I think Pete Carroll is going to run Ashton Jeanty 25+ times, and Geno Smith is going to outplay Drake Maye.
Cardinals vs. Saints: Cardinals (-6.5)
Spencer Rattler is the starting quarterback for the New Orleans Saints. No thanks.
Steelers vs. Jets: Steelers (-2.5)
I hate both teams equally, but I feel like the Steelers are just in a better place right now, and Aaron Rodgers' quest to silence the critics starts in Week 1.
Giants vs. Commanders: Commanders (-6.5)
The Commanders are a team that most are picking to regress this season. While that may happen, I don't see it happening in Week 1 vs. a bad Giants side. Jayden Daniels should carve up this defense, and Russell Wilson will struggle to keep pace.
Panthers vs. Jaguars: Jaguars (-3.5)
I know it was just the preseason, but did you see the Panthers play football? I'm not sold on them not being a Bottom 3 team this year. The Jaguars have some good pieces in place, and I trust them to win this one by at least four points on their home turf.
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Titans vs. Broncos: Broncos (-7.5)
Cam Ward makes his NFL debut against the Denver Broncos on the road. I'm not convinced he'll be able to do enough to keep this game within the spread. The Broncos are a sexy pick to make the playoffs, and blowing out a bottom-feeder at home will set the tone for the season.
49ers vs. Seahawks: Seahawks (+2.5)
I'm not a big believer in this being a bounce-back season for the San Francisco 49ers. They are a team with plenty of question marks, and going on the road in the division in Week 1 as a favorite is a tough ask. Sam Darnold can prove efficient, and the Seahawks can steal a victory here.
Lions vs. Packers: Lions (+2.5)
Micah Parsons or no Micah Parsons, the Packers should not be laying points here. The Detroit offense is still legit, and with the Packers having plenty of hobbled weapons, I don't see them scoring enough to keep pace.
Texans vs. Rams: Texans (+3)
Whether or not Matthew Stafford is under center for the Rams in Week 1, I believe the Houston Texans are the better team from top to bottom. C.J. Stroud is poised for a big year, and with plenty of weapons around him and an underrated defense, the Texans should open up the season with an overwhelming win.
Ravens vs. Bills: Ravens (+1.5)
I believe the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through Baltimore this year, so I'll happily take the Ravens as an underdog in this spot. Lamar Jackson will be out to show why he was the deserving MVP winner last year, and the team will be looking to exact some revenge for last year's playoff loss.
Vikings vs. Bears: Bears (-1.5)
Maybe I'm naive, but I think the Bears are going to be within touching distance of a playoff spot this year. Caleb Williams has a year under his belt, and new head coach Ben Johnson should have this team ready to go. On the flip side, J.J. McCarthy is making his NFL debut, and I'm not sure he's up for the challenge in Week 1.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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