NFL fans are getting a rare treat on opening night as the 2026 season kicks off tonight at Lumen Field.
This marks just the second Wednesday opener in league history and only the third time a season starts with an immediate Super Bowl rematch. The Seattle Seahawks take the field as 3.5-point home favorites against the New England Patriots.
My Patriots vs. Seahawks predictions analyze how both championship rosters have shifted since the Big Game to deliver my top NFL picks for Opening Night on Sept. 9.
TOP PICK
Patriots vs Seahawks prediction: Under 44.5
The Seattle Seahawks are notorious for creating pressure with just a four-man rush, as Mike Macdonald’s schemes don’t rely on blitzing.
New England Patriots QB Drake Maye found that out the hard way in SBLX. His career ratings slip when under pressure from just the front four.
New England’s defense deals with a different Seattle ground game in Week 1. The Seahawks are thin in the backfield, due to injuries and departures, which hurts the success of selling play action.
Sam Darnold is among the best QBs in play action, and if new offensive coordinator Brian Fleury can’t establish the run, this attack can get predictable.
COVERS INTEL: Sam Darnold, the No. 2 QB in play action rating at PFF, went 4-for-6 on PA attempts in SB60, boasting a +0.15 EPA per dropback and a TD. He completed just 47% of passes with a -0.24 EPA on traditional dropbacks in that game.
Patriots vs Seahawks combo
Lumen Field will have a postseason atmosphere for this Big Game redo.
Mike Macdonald will lean heavily into his defense in the early weeks of the schedule, as the offense has wrinkles to iron out. New England’s defense is among the elite, not giving up gains on the ground and limiting foes’ explosive plays downfield.
While I like a lower-scoring finish at Lumen Field on Wednesday, I love TE A.J. Barner to strike for a score against New England once again. I’m also taking Seahawks speedy WR Rashid Shaheed for Over 29.5 receiving yards (and for those who want to spice it up, 40+ receiving yards), burning up the man-centric coverage from the Patriots.
Patriots vs Seahawks combo
- Under 44.5
- A.J. Barner: anytime touchdown
- Rashid Shaheed Over 29.5 receiving yards
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
Patriots vs Seahawks touchdown scorer: A.J. Barner
Tight end A.J. Barner scored the lone offensive touchdown for Seattle in the Super Bowl and is expected to play a bigger role for this attack in 2026.
New OC Brian Fleury is a former TE coach and will utilize a lot of 12 personnel, especially early on as he gets his feet wet as a play caller.
On top of being a capable pass catcher, the Seahawks also utilize Barner as a runner in goal line situations – AKA “The Barnyard” – in which he takes a direct snap in “tush push” fashion.
Barner’s touchdown projections range between 24% and 30%.
Patriots vs Seahawks player prop: Rashid Shaheed 40+ receiving yards — Yes
Rashid Shaheed finished with two catches for 27 yards in Super Bowl LX but was fingertips away from another 60+ yards.
Shaheed is a threat to top this total with one catch. He’s excellent versus man-to-man coverage, something the Patriots run at a high rate.
What’s more, WR1 Jaxson-Smith Njigba draws added attention from the Pats secondary, leaving Shaheed in single coverage.
Shaheed, who arrived at the 2025 trade deadline, is expected to have a bigger role, and projections range from 37 to as many as 46 yards in Week 1.
More Patriots vs Seahawks picks from Covers
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- Patriots vs. Seahawks AI predictions
- Patriots vs. Seahawks cheat sheet
Patriots vs Seahawks market trends
Here is how the money is coming in via trusted traders at Kalshi for tonight's Patriots vs. Seahawks matchup at Lumen Field.
Patriots vs Seahawks odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Patriots +3.5 | Seahawks -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (49%) | Under 44.5 (52%)
- Moneyline: Patriots 37% | Seahawks 62%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Patriots vs Seahawks weather
Tonight's forecast calls for temperatures in the high-50s at Lumen Field with light winds blowing north at 6 mph and gusts maxing out at 9 mph. It looks like excellent weather for the NFL opener.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Patriots vs Seahawks trend to know
Beware the “Super Bowl Hangover”. Since 2000, the Super Bowl loser is just 7-19 ATS (27%) in Week 1 of the following season. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs Seahawks.
How to watch Patriots vs Seahawks
| Location | Lumen Field, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Patriots vs Seahawks latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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