The wait is over, as NFL Week 1 kicks off tonight with a Super Bowl rematch between the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks.
I've compiled my top Patriots vs. Seahawks touchdown picks for this lid-lifter. See why AJ Brown is part of my free NFL picks for Wednesday, Sept. 9. For more insight into this game, check out Jason Logan's Patriots vs. Seahawks predictions.
Best Patriots vs Seahawks anytime touchdown picks
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 AJ Brown anytime touchdown |
35% |
 George Holani anytime touchdown |
31% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson first touchdown |
13% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Patriots touchdown pick: AJ Brown
AJ Brown finally got his way this offseason, as the Philadelphia Eagles flipped him to the New England Patriots. I think the Patriots will be eager to let their new No. 1 target establish himself in the offense in Week 1.
Brown's touchdown numbers dipped over the last two seasons in Philly, partially due to injuries. Also at play was the Eagles running the football at the highest clip in the NFL in 2024. Philly dipped to sixth in rush rate last year, but still chose to run it over 58% of time in the red zone in 2025 (third).
Hunter Henry was the tearaway leader in red-zone targets for New England last year (22-12 over Stefon Diggs), but I think that was more out of necessity for Drake Maye, who dealt with a sub-optimal group of wide-outs last season, than anything else.
Play to 40%.
Seahawks touchdown pick: George Holani
Jadarian Price may be No. 1 on the Seattle Seahawks depth chart while Zach Charbonnet works his way back from injury, but just how much trust will the Seahawks put in the rookie to tote the ball at the goal line?
I think backup running back George Holani is worth a shot at 37% or better.
Holani got some looks in the postseason, and was serviceable when called upon in limited spots last year. His lone touchdown from last year came on a nine-yard carry.
The Seahawks ran the ball at the third-highest rate in the NFL in 2025, so there should be ample opportunities for the tailback out of Boise State here.
First touchdown scorer pick: Rhamondre Stevenson
Rhamondre Stevenson's anytime TD market is hovering at coin-flip odds, so I'm opting to take a shot on his first TD prop instead.
I believe Stevenson will get the bulk of the carries over TreVeyon Henderson, who is nursing an ankle injury and may not play. Stevenson doubled Henderson in touches in the postseason, suggesting the former has cemented his status as No. 1 on the depth chart.
If and when Henderson is ruled out, Stevenson's price will tumble. Whether it's at the goal line or not, I expect Stevenson to score, and hopefully it's before anybody else. Play to 16%.
More Patriots vs Seahawks picks from Covers
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Patriots vs Seahawks touchdown combo
AJ Brown anytime touchdown
George Holani anytime touchdown
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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