The NFL returns with a bang tonight, pitting the New England Patriots against the Seattle Seahawks in a Super Bowl rematch.
Our Patriots vs. Seahawks expert picks have you covered with spread, total, and player props for the big game.
See what you need to add to your NFL picks for Sept. 9, with kickoff at 8:20 p.m. ET from Lumen Field in Seattle, Wash.
Patriots vs Seahawks expert picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
 Probability |
|
|---|---|
 Jason Logan: Rashid Shaheed 40+ receiving yards |
39% |
 Josh Inglis: George Holani anytime TD |
30% |
 Joe Osborne: Over 44.5 |
48% |
 Jon Metler: Seahawks -3.5 |
48% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Jason Logan’s expert pick: Rashid Shaheed 40+ receiving yards
Price: 39% at Kalshi
Rashid Shaheed was moved to the Seattle Seahawks at the trade deadline last year and took a while to work his way into the offense, especially with the Seahawks facing plenty of zone coverage in the back half of the schedule.
Shaheed is a deep threat who blows away man-to-man, which is what the New England Patriots defense leans into. He had two catches on five targets for 27 yards in SBLX but just missed on a 60+ yard bomb in the fourth quarter.
With a full offseason to integrate into the playbook of new OC Brian Fleury, Shaheed is expected to play a bigger role in the receiving corps.
With JSN drawing double coverage, Shaheed is left to one-on-one matchups, and projections sit closer to 40 yards in Week 1.
I also like his Yes 25+ receiving yards at 60% and a flyer on him at 7% to record the most receiving yards in Wednesday’s NFL opener.
See what else Jason Logan is on in his complete Patriots vs. Seahawks predictions.
Josh Inglis' expert pick: George Holani anytime touchdown
Price: 30% at Kalshi
The Seahawks might not want to trust rookie running back Jadarian Price near the goal line, especially when he didn't play in the preseason.
That could leave veteran George Holani with a role in close, and 30% is far too long for a score, with my fair price around 37%. Price (46%) is being suggested as the No. 1 option in the RZ, but that is not guaranteed.
I wouldn't be surprised if the running back touchdown probabilities leveled out closer to kickoff. Seattle ran in the RZ at 56% last year, and at 70% from inside the 10.
Holani had five carries in the RZ last year with one TD. He is trusted and not getting enough credit right now for his potential role with Kenneth Walker gone, Zach Charbonnet on the shelf, and Price too green.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Over 44.5
Price: 48% at Kalshi
We should see a much different version of the Patriots offense than the one we saw in the Super Bowl.
Upgraded receivers and protection adjustments should help Drake Maye, who played through a shoulder injury and took six sacks in that loss, where New England only had one trip to the red zone.
Seattle can carry its share of the scoring after averaging 31.7 points at home last season.
Jon Metler’s expert pick: Seahawks -3.5
Price: 48% at Kalshi
The hook is undoubtedly scary when a game features two of the top teams in the NFL, especially when you expect it to be a battle.
However, at 48%, I can justify laying Seahawks -3.5 because I price Seattle closer to a 4.5-point favorite here.
The difference between my projection and the market is only one point, but the 48% carries significant weight from an expected-value perspective.
That one-point difference also crosses several key numbers, further strengthening our edge on the Seahawks.
How to watch Patriots vs Seahawks
| Location | Lumen Field, Seattle, Wash. |
| Date | Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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