The Kansas City Chiefs welcome the Washington Commanders to town on Monday night as the teams finish off the Week 8 NFL slate.
With nearly all his weapons available, the Patrick Mahomes odds indicate many expect him to have a strong performance against a struggling Washington pass defense.
My NFL picks and Commanders vs. Chiefs predictions on Monday, October 27, tend to agree with that assessment.
Patrick Mahomes prop pick
Patrick Mahomes best bet: Patrick Mahomes Over 23.5 completions (+100 at bet365)
According to PFF, only three defenses in the NFL run more single-high coverages than the Washington Commanders. That’s good news for Patrick Mahomes, given he’s Top 10 in the league at punishing those looks.
Additionally, the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback is completing 73.3% of his throws when he’s not being pressured. The Commanders will be missing three of their outside pass rushers in this game, and they rank dead last in the league in yards allowed per attempt on plays where they don’t register a pressure.
With one of his favorite weapons finally back in the fold, I expect we will see Mahomes throwing early and often. Rashee Rice was targeted 10 times last week against the Raiders, catching seven passes in his first game back from suspension.
Washington faced Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, and Michael Penix Jr. over the last four games. Those three quarterbacks averaged 21 completions on 28.3 attempts for a 74.2% completion rate, showing just how much the Commanders struggle to force incompletions.
Mahomes has topped this completion total in three of his last four games and is averaging 35.4 attempts per game. With little to no pass rush, expect him to consistently find open receivers and have a field day against this defense.
Patrick Mahomes same-game parlay
Patrick Mahomes Over 23.5 completions
Tyquan Thornton Over 0.5 receiving yards
Rashee Rice anytime touchdown
I’m not sure why Tyquan Thornton’s receiving yard total is set at 0.5, but I’ll gladly take the Over. While his targets have never been high volume, he still had two last week against the Raiders in a 31-0 blowout as he notched 39 yards on one catch. He’s also run double-digit routes on pass plays in every game this season.
Washington is terrible against play-action, and with no pressure, Mahomes will allow routes to develop downfield. That should lead to the speedy Thornton getting a few looks, given his average depth of target this season is 26 yards.
Rice was targeted twice inside the Las Vegas 10-yard line on Kansas City’s opening drive last week. He caught a two-yard touchdown, and another on the final drive of the half when he was again targeted twice inside the 10.
Getting targeted on 25% of the snaps Mahomes took in the red zone makes Rice an automatic touchdown play for me.
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