We may have only just witnessed this year’s Super Bowl, but already attention is turning to the game of 2027, and one of the biggest halftime shows on the calendar.
In February 2027, a certain famous face (or faces) will be heading the stage at the SoFi Stadium, home of the Los Angeles Rams. The question is: who will it be?
Traders are currently speculating on names like Jay-Z, Justin Bieber, Miley Cyrus, Sabrina Carpenter, Billie Eilish and many more, but the crowd is far from decided at this early stage.
The NFL and Jay-Z’s Roc Nation don’t typically reveal the performer until the fall, which gives prediction market traders plenty of time to adjust their positions and potentially make a profit in the meantime. If you think you know who’s going to land the most-watched 15-minute gig in the world, now’s the time to grab those contracts before prices start to rise.
Key Takeaways:
- The Behind-the-Scenes Favorite: Jay-Z leads the board with a 39% implied probability, as traders speculate on whether or not the Roc Nation mastermind will headline.
- The Pop Powerhouses: Justin Bieber (30%) and Miley Cyrus (18%) are some of the strongest artist picks. They’ve both got extensive catalogs and global appeal.
- Great Value Sleepers: Discrepancies between mainstream sportsbooks and Kalshi's prediction markets are starting to reveal some of the best value plays for traders prepared to act quickly.
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The Current Board: Top Contenders for the Super Bowl Halftime Show 2027
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Market volume has now cleared $100,000, but we can expect this to rise at considerable speed as we get closer to the announcement. Any rumored performances will cause massive price jumps and with that a significant increase in volume on the market.
Early Super Bowl Halftime Performance Picks: The Best Value Options on the Board
Prediction markets are highly sensitive to any changes in narratives, especially around an outcome as widely discussed as this one. But that means that sometimes, a rumor with no real truth behind it will cause huge overreactions on the market, resulting in mispriced picks that traders can use to their advantage.
At the moment, several big name performers come at a discount price, with traders ready and waiting to react to any new talk of who the next halftime star will be. Here are a few of the options that are most likely to see significant price jumps before long.
Miley Cyrus | 'Yes' 24¢ | 18% Probability
Miley Cyrus is arguably the most mispriced option on the board right now. She’s sitting at just 24% on Kalshi, but she’s an early favorite at sportsbooks, with odds of around +310
Miley has cross-generational appeal, and she can flawlessly span pop, country and rock. Her L.A. ties also make her an obvious choice for a game hosted at SoFi Stadium. At 24¢, the risk-to-reward ratio for Cyrus couldn’t be much better.
Taylor Swift | 'No' 88¢ | 88% Probability
A ‘Yes’ for Taylor Swift is now 19%, so that’s around a one-in-five chance. She's finished the re-recording of her first six albums now, leading many to wonder if that leaves time for a show like the Super Bowl.
However, Swift only recently wrapped up her Eras Tour and is rumoured to be marrying Travis Kelce very soon. She may well opt for an extended break after the celebrations, rather than another huge performance on a global stage.
Justin Bieber | 'Yes' 35¢ | 30% Probability
Justin Bieber is the kind of global superstar who could easily headline a show like this. He’s got a great catalog for stadium performances, he’s currently based in Los Angeles, and he's a favorite to headline the upcoming World Cup final halftime show (the first of its kind!).
Bieber has performed at several festivals recently, as well as the Grammys. So, it’s entirely possible that the Super Bowl could be next on his agenda. At 35¢, this feels like a great discount on a name that’s definitely in the running.
Harry Styles | ‘Yes’ 25¢ | 17% Probability
Harry Styles is another value play to watch at the moment. His 25¢ price tag on Kalshi is low, considering his current momentum. He’s only recently released his fourth studio album, Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally., and his massive Together, Together global residency tour is ongoing.
Styles has been shattering records recently, including an unprecedented 12-night takeover of London’s Wembley Stadium and a massive 30-night run scheduled at Madison Square Garden through October. And importantly, his global tour ends in December, leaving plenty of room for those halftime show rehearsals in early 2027.
Sentiment vs. Reality: JAY-Z Leads the Way, but Other Stars Have Stronger Chance
Jay-Z is the name at the top of this board, but that’s largely down to his links with Roc Nation. He controls the creative direction of the show, and the market has priced him like it expects him to take to the stage next year.
The current price of a ‘Yes’ for the world-famous rapper might be an overreaction from the market, however. Jay-Z has never performed at the Super Bowl before, and he’s been producing, curating and selecting its artists since 2019. And it’s also worth noting that over the last few years, those artists have been global multi-genre acts.
Bad Bunny’s 2026 show proved enormously popular, so it’s likely that producers will opt for something similar this time around. That’s why someone like Miley Cyrus or Justin Bieber could well be a stronger pick at the moment.
We’re expecting a big shake up of this board in the coming months. Traders who get in early will be the ones that take advantage of that.
A Decade of Halftime Giants
Understanding the direction that the next halftime show might be going in means knowing where it’s been before.
Ever since Jay-Z’s Roc Nation took the reins of the NFL’s musical programming, the halftime show has leaned heavily away from classic rock nostalgia and shifted toward multi-genre, modern spectacles with massive streaming and cultural footprints.
Historically, we’ve seen the production alternate between massive multi-artist collaborations and single pop powerhouses. Bad Bunny’s historic, high-energy Latin celebration in 2026 set a huge benchmark in terms of viewership. It generated 4.157 billion worldwide views in its first 24 hours across broadcast and was the most watched halftime show of all time on a global scale.
For traders looking for patterns, the NFL often follows up contemporary, multi-guest performances with a single icon, and there are several names on the board that could work if producers choose to do that.
Here’s a look back at the performers who have been selected over the past 10 years.
| Year | Super Bowl | Headliner(s) | Notable Special Guests / Cameos |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | LX | Bad Bunny | Lady Gaga, Ricky Martin, Cardi B, Karol G |
| 2025 | LIX | Kendrick Lamar | SZA |
| 2024 | LVIII | Usher | Alicia Keys, H.E.R., Lil Jon, Ludacris, will.i.am |
| 2023 | LVII | Rihanna | None (Solo Performance) |
| 2022 | LVI | Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Eminem, Mary J. Blige, Kendrick Lamar | 50 Cent, Anderson .Paak |
| 2021 | LV | The Weeknd | None |
| 2020 | LIV | Shakira & Jennifer Lopez | Bad Bunny, J Balvin |
| 2019 | LIII | Maroon 5 | Travis Scott, Big Boi |
| 2018 | LII | Justin Timberlake | The Tennessee Kids |
| 2017 | LI | Lady Gaga | None |
Strategy Tips for Super Bowl Halftime Performance Traders
To navigate entertainment markets like this one, you need a good grasp of what the show’s production team will be looking for, and the ability to analyze all the touring and schedule information that’s already in the public domain.
If you know which performers will be in the running, and you know what to look at to help you count them in or out, you stand a much better chance of correctly predicting the chosen star. Here are a few strategy tips to help traders make the most of these types of prediction markets.
• Watch the Narrative Shifts and Tour Cycles: Keep tabs on industry trade publications like Billboard and Variety. Artists who suddenly announce major gaps in their early 2027 touring schedules are highly likely to see their 'Yes' contracts surge.
• The Flip Strategy: You don’t have to hold your contracts until February 2027. The most profitable strategy is buying underpriced artists like Miley Cyrus at 24¢ now and selling your position in the event of any leaks or new rumors circulating.
• Managing Binary Volatility: Entertainment prediction markets on Kalshi are binary. They settle at either 100¢ ('Yes') or 0¢ ('No'). Protect your capital by setting strict target entry prices and avoiding overexposed positions on longshots.
How to Trade the Halftime Show on Kalshi
It only takes a few minutes to set up an account and start trading on Kalshi. Here’s a step-by-step guide to creating your account and purchasing your first Super Bowl halftime performance contracts.
- Account Setup: Download the Kalshi app, complete the quick verification process, and fund your account via ACH or wire transfer.
- Navigate: Head to the "Entertainment" or "Culture" tab and search for the "Pro Football Championship Halftime Show" market.
- Execute: Select your chosen artist, choose whether to buy a 'yes' or 'no' contract, enter your desired share quantity, and submit the order.
- Monitor: Track your portfolio's value as rumors break. You can sell your contracts back to the market at any point to lock in profits or mitigate losses before final resolution.
Super Bowl LXI Halftime Show FAQs
The market resolves to 'Yes' based on the official announcement of the designated headline artist. The outcome is verified by Outcome verified from The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News and MSNBC.
Yes, you can buy or sell contracts at any time before the market officially closes or the announcement is made. If new rumors cause your 24¢ contract to shoot up to 60¢, you can sell early to claim your profits immediately. You are never locked into a position until the final resolution date.
If the NFL selects an artist who was not explicitly listed on the Kalshi board, all listed candidate contracts will settle to 'No'. Kalshi frequently updates its brackets to add surging names as volume grows to prevent this. However, the "Other" or unlisted pool would effectively absorb the winning payout.
No, guest performers who come out for a single song cameo do not qualify for the headline resolution. The contract strictly requires the artist to be officially billed by the NFL as the primary headliner of the show. Cameos and uncredited duets will ultimately resolve to a 'No' settlement.
Historically, the official halftime show headliner announcement drops between late September and mid-October during the regular football season. This creates a clear timeline for traders, as volatility will peak dramatically during those months. Prices will move fast as the traditional announcement window approaches.
