Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are back in prime time, but this time they'll host the Washington Commanders without Jayden Daniels as a hefty double-digit favorite at Arrowhead Stadium.
With the MVP train in full swing for the KC quarterback, can the visitors stay competitive with a healthy set of receivers?
Read on for my Commanders vs. Chiefs predictions and NFL picks on Monday, October 27.
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Commanders vs Chiefs prediction
Commanders vs Chiefs Best bet: Marcus Mariota anytime touchdown (+400)
Quarterback rushing touchdowns have quietly become a profitable angle on Monday Night Football. Through seven weeks, six QB scores have cashed at prices ranging from +180 to +600 — good for a 7-15 record straight up and +13.9 units over 22 single bets.
Patrick Mahomes at +300 is a fine look — he’s running more than ever with four rushing touchdowns already this season — but Marcus Mariota at +400 offers better value, even in a tougher matchup. In his two starts this year, Mariota has eight carries for 80 yards and a score, and he’s previously been priced shorter at +280 and +360 in similar spots.
The Kansas City Chiefs allowed Trevor Lawrence to rush 10 times for 54 yards and two touchdowns the last time they appeared on Monday night, and Mahomes also added one of his own in that game. With Washington entering as a double-digit underdog, Mariota should be forced to drop back often, creating plenty of scramble opportunities.
This number feels inflated due to matchup perception, and there’s solid value down to +300 on a Mariota.
Commanders vs Chiefs MNF same-game parlay
Adding both QBs for a score might seem greedy, but over the 11 MNF games this season, it has cashed twice, including the Week 5 Chiefs' loss to the Jaguars, when Mahomes and Lawrence scored for a similar payout on the SGP.
Mahomes has scored in four of his seven games this year, and with the Chiefs passing a ton near the goal line, he is always a threat, even with a big lead.
Mariota had a TD in his first of two starts this year and added another last year in two games with 16 carries. He likes to run, and the Chiefs have to respect Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin.
Commanders vs Chiefs SGP +1,600
- Marcus Mariota anytime touchdown
- Patrick Mahomes anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Prime Time Keepers
Adding the Mariota rushing total to this doesn't push it much (to +2400), but there is going to be some serious negative game script for the QB, and a couple of 10-yard gains to the sticks are simple.
Tyquan Thornton might not have as much volume as he did earlier this year, but the Chiefs pass at the highest rate in football, and Mahomes loves to spread it around, and if Thornton is getting a catch, it's going for over nine yards. He leads the KC WRs with a 37% air-yard share.
Commanders vs Chiefs SGP +4,500
- Marcus Mariota anytime touchdown
- Patrick Mahomes anytime touchdown
- Tyquan Thornton Over 8.5 receiving yards
- Mariota Over 23.5 rushing yards
Commanders vs Chiefs odds
- Spread: Commanders +12.5 | Chiefs -12.5
- Moneyline: Commanders +550 | Chiefs -800
- Over/Under: Over 48 | Under 48
Commanders vs Chiefs betting trend to know
Since last season, Patrick Mahomes is 1-6 ATS as a TD favorite or more, with that one ATS win coming the previous week vs. Las Vegas. Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Chiefs.
How to watch Commanders vs Chiefs
| Location | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Monday, October 27, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN or ABC |
Commanders vs Chiefs latest injuries
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