Giants vs Commanders Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 11: Howell & Co. Carve Up New York's Defense

Just how dire is the situation for the New York Giants?

Well, they’re almost catching double digits as road underdogs against a 4-6 Washington Commanders team in Week 11 odds.

New York brings a three-game skid to the nation’s capital, with injuries up and down the depth chart. Quarterback continues to be a challenge for the Giants, who are left starting struggling rookie Tommy DeVito yet again.

Washington, on the other hand, could have the answer to its lingering QB question. Sam Howell currently leads the league in passing yards and completions, sparking a resurgence in the Commanders’ offense.

Is that discrepancy worth the pile of points being handed to the visitor by the NFL odds?

We’ll find out as I run down the point spread and Over/Under total for this divisional rivalry and give my best NFL picks for Giants vs. Commanders on November 19.

Giants vs Commanders odds

Giants vs Commanders predictions

One of my first bets of Week 11 was the Over 36 in this NFC East matchup, leaning heavily on the renaissance under center for the Washington Commanders.

With Sam Howell focusing on passing quicker to avoid taking drive-killing sacks, the Commanders air attack is stretching their legs. Howell has thrown for 300-plus yards in three straight games with eight touchdowns, bumping Washington to No. 8 in EPA per dropback since Week 8.

The Commanders posted 31 points in their Week 8 loss to the Eagles, put up 20 points in a win over the Patriots (leaving points on the table with a 1-for-4 RZ day), and hung 26 points on the board in a shootout loss to the Seahawks in Week 10.

Washington is starting to gain traction in new offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy’s system, and it’s not just Howell doing big things. The rushing game has flourished in recent outings as well, with the RB combo of Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson averaging 4.7 yards per attempt over the past three weeks.

That balanced offense now faces a New York Giants defense that currently has nine players with an injury designation in Week 11 — either out, doubtful, or questionable. That includes each of the current starters in the secondary and two starting LBs in Kayvon Thibodeaux and Bobby Okereke.

Even when the stop unit was healthy, New York wasn’t putting up much of a fight. The Giants are among the bottom of the NFL in many basic and advanced defensive metrics and give up more than 30 points per game on the road.

Given that New York’s offense is in just as bad a shape and sitting second lowest in first downs per game, there will be added possessions for Howell & Co. to keep the points coming in front of the D.C. faithful on Sunday.

Washington has had trouble putting up points against the Giants in recent meetings, scoring 20 or less in seven of its last 10 head-to-head encounters going back to 2018. However, these are dire circumstances for New York and the most life we’ve seen from the Commanders offense all season.

My best bet: Commanders team total Over 23.5 (+100 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Giants vs Commanders same-game parlay

Commanders team total Over 23.5

Sam Howell Over 1.5 passing touchdowns

Brian Robinson anytime touchdown

+28- at bet365

The Commanders are clicking and facing a shorthanded Giants defense that is allowing more than 30 points on the road. Howell is making it rain the past three weeks with eight total touchdowns. He’ll expose a dinged-up Giants secondary for at least two more TDs.

Meanwhile, Robinson gets the bulk of red zone carries for the Commanders and can find paydirt both on the ground and through the air. New York has allowed 12 TDs to running backs.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Giants vs Commanders spread and Over/Under analysis

The look-ahead line for this NFC East encounter had Washington laying -8 at home in Week 11.

But following the Giants getting flattened by the Cowboys and the Commanders loss in Seattle, this Week 11 opener hit the board as big as Washington -10.

There has been some buyback on the G-Men, which has this spread as low as Washington -8.5, but this line ranges from that low to as high as -9.5 as of Thursday afternoon. Covers Consensus is showing 65% of early picks siding with the home team on Sunday.

The Giants did defeat the Commanders 14-7 in East Rutherford back in Week 7, covering as 3-point home underdogs. However, this roster was in much better shape back then, even with backup QB Tyrod Taylor making throws for the G-Men.

The Giants have left a bad taste in the mouths of the betting market this season, covering the spread just twice despite seeing some sizable spreads as underdogs. This is to be expected, considering this roster has been ripped apart by injuries.

New York enters Week 11 with the longest injury report in the league, with multiple starters out of action and its backups designated as questionable. This rash of ailments impacts both sides of the ball.

On top of the Giants' woes against the spread and MASH unit of a depth chart, the Giants also face a challenging schedule spot as Week 11 will be the team’s third straight road game following losses at Dallas and Las Vegas by a combined score of 79-23.

The Commanders, on the other hand, are back home after a two-game road swing. And while Washington is just 1-2 straight up in the past three games, it has gone 2-0-1 ATS and the offense has sprung to life with Howell leading the charge.

The Commanders have improved to 12th in EPA per play since that loss to New York in Week 7, with Howell getting rid of the football much quicker and avoiding the wave of sacks that hindered this team in the opening seven weeks of play.

That uptick in offense had a good shot to continue in Week 11, considering the New York defense ranks among the worst in the NFL and could be marching out a skeleton crew for this third straight road stop.

The Giants are 25th in EPA allowed per play and 29th in Defensive DVOA, and that’s with a relatively healthy stop unit. A look at the injury report forecasts a number of missing bodies on this defense, including the entire secondary.

The Over/Under total for this NFC East affair opened as low as 36 points on Sunday night and climbed to 37.5 before coming back down to 36.5/37 points as of Thursday. Covers Consensus is showing 52% of picks on the Under.

The Commanders are 5-5 Over/Under on the season but have gone Over in two of the last three games thanks to an offensive uptick and a defense that is still susceptible to the passing game — allowing the third-highest EPA per dropback allowed in the NFL.

New York is 2-8 Over/Under, with the bulk of that landing on a punchless offense averaging less than 12 points per game. However, the Giants defense has made Under bettors sweat it out, giving up 30 points or more in five of those contests.

Giants vs Commanders betting trend to know

Washington has struggled against the rival Giants for a while now. On top of losing 14-7 as 3-point road favorites in East Rutherford in Week 7, the franchise is 5-9-1 SU and 5-10 ATS against New York dating back to 2017. Find more NFL betting trends for Giants vs. Commanders.

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