The Houston Texans continue to rack up wins in search of the postseason, and they'll likely keep the good times rolling against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 16.
My Raiders vs Texans predictions expect Nico Collins to feast in a lopsided Houston victory.
Let's take a closer look at this December 21 matchup with my free NFL picks and betting angles.
Raiders vs Texans prediction
Raiders vs Texans Best bet: Nico Collins Over 66.5 receiving yards (-114)
If the Houston Texans are going to make some noise in the postseason, it’s fair to look at their defensive firepower as DeMeco Ryans’ biggest advantage.
However, the Houston offense still needs to consistently put points on the board, so it’s been encouraging to see the C.J. Stroud–Nico Collins connection back at its best and torching secondaries.
Collins has been unstoppable over the last two months, racking up 662 receiving yards in his past seven contests — a 94.6 YPG clip — and he turned three catches into 85 yards and two touchdowns last weekend.
Collins has already clinched his third straight 1,000-yard season, and he’s blown past this O/U number in six of his last seven games.
Stroud will also target Dalton Schultz and Jayden Higgins, but Collins is the clear No. 1 option, and this prop line is surprisingly low given what we’ve seen lately from the Las Vegas Raiders’ defense. Last weekend, Jalen Hurts turned 12 completions into 175 yards and three TDs against Las Vegas.
Collins has logged three catches of 50+ yards since Week 10, and I’m pencilling him in for more chunk plays on Sunday. Houston is coming off a 40-point explosion last weekend against the Arizona Cardinals, and Stroud should be feeding his top target again here.
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Raiders vs Texans same-game parlay
The Texans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games, and this huge spread isn’t big enough to dissuade me from laying the points with the hosts. The Raiders have lost four of their past five contests by 14+ points, and now they face a Houston defense that’s held Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen to a combined 29 points this season.
And yet, I’m buying into the idea of Geno Smith throwing a touchdown pass. Las Vegas may have shelved the running game by early in the second half, so a garbage-time score could be on the menu. Smith has tossed at least one touchdown in each of his last four starts.
Raiders vs Texans SGP
- Nico Collins Over 66.5 receiving yards
- Texans -14.5
- Geno Smith Over 0.5 passing touchdowns
Our big-ticket SGP: Dalton damage
Schultz is a proven security blanket for Stroud, who’s targeted his big tight end 8+ times in five of the last seven games.
I’m expecting steady volume again on Sunday for Schultz, who finished with eight catches for 76 yards and a touchdown last weekend and leads Houston with 70 receptions this season.
Raiders vs Texans SGP
- Nico Collins Over 66.5 receiving yards
- Texans -14.5
- Geno Smith Over 0.5 passing touchdowns
- Dalton Schultz Over 4.5 receptions
Raiders vs Texans game predictions
Raiders vs Texans moneyline prediction
There’s no need to be on upset watch at NRG Stadium, with the Raiders coming off a miserable 31-0 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles last time out.
The Texans are 8-2 SU in their past 10 contests, and they’re 5-2 at home this year.
Even with Geno Smith returning for Las Vegas, the visitors are just 1-6 on the road this season.
Raiders vs Texans spread prediction
Houston has found a rhythm on both sides of the ball, resulting in a 5-1 ATS record in its last six outings, and there’s every reason to expect this Texans defense to feast against the Raiders’ overmatched offensive line.
Las Vegas is 2-5 ATS on its travels under Pete Carroll.
Raiders vs Texans Over/Under prediction
While the Over is 5-1 in the past six meetings between these teams, it’s hard to trust the Raiders to move the chains in this spot.
The Under is 9-4-1 for the Texans this season, and that feels like the safer play here.
Brock Bowers is a trump card for the visitors, but Las Vegas hasn’t reached the 20-point mark in any of its last six games.
Raiders vs Texans odds
- Spread: Raiders +14.5 (-122) | Texans -12.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Raiders +810 | Texans -1350
- Over/Under: Over 39.5 (-108) | Under 39.5 (-112)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Raiders vs Texans trend to know
The Texans are 5-2 ATS at home this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Texans.
How to watch Raiders vs Texans
| Location | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date | Sunday, December 21, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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