Bowl season rumbles on with an intriguing Group of Five matchup in the Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl as the UNLV Rebels face the Ohio Bobcats on Tuesday night.
The Rebels accumulated an impressive 10-3 record in Year 1 of the Dan Mullen era and are sizable favorites against a Bobcats team that just lost its coach.
See why I’m biting the bullet and taking the underdog anyway with my UNLV vs. Ohio predictions and college football picks for the Frisco Bowl.
UNLV vs Ohio predictions for the Frisco Bowl
Who will win the Frisco Bowl?
The UNLV Rebels will come away with a narrow victory to move to 11-3 in Year 1 of the Dan Mullen era.
UNLV vs Ohio best bet: Ohio +6.5 (-105)
The Ohio Bobcats have only lost by seven points or more once this season. You may have heard of the culprit: Ohio State. UNLV may have impressed with a 10-win season, but this is not a team as good as Ohio State.
That alone is nearly enough reason for me to play the unsavory underdog in a game where the line has ballooned several points in response to Ohio coach Brian Smith’s ousting following the regular season for “engaging in serious professional misconduct”.
That certainly is concerning, but it’s not the only factor in this handicap. Ohio has more favorable overall metrics (40th in EPA per play on offense, 53rd on defense) than UNLV (15th on offense, 110th on defense) despite facing a more difficult schedule (89th in strength of schedule; UNLV 124th).
The Rebels have had major issues on defense all year, allowing six different opponents to rack up at least 6.7 yards per play. Again, that’s despite facing a very favorable schedule.
UNLV primarily struggles against the run (131st in EPA per rush), and that’s a concern in this match. Ohio wants to keep the ball on the ground (12th in rush rate) with running back Sieh Bangura (1,243 rushing yards, 14 TDs) and quarterback Parker Navarro (839 yards, 8 TDs).
The coaching concern is a factor, but it’s not the only one.
UNLV vs Ohio same-game parlay
Even though both sides are expected to find offensive success, this total is a tad high. UNLV has cashed the Under in four of its last five games despite its reputation for offense, and this game will be played at a methodical pace as neither team pushes the tempo (UNLV 89th in plays per minute, Ohio 101st).
The Rebels have gotten off to a slow start many a time this season and have failed to cover the first-quarter spread in six of their last eight contests. That correlates with an Under for the initial frame, as Ohio's success likely involves holding onto the ball and limiting big plays from UNLV.
UNLV vs Ohio SGP
- Ohio +6.5
- Under 65.5
- Ohio first quarter +1.5
- First quarter Under 14.5
Our deep-ball SGP: Quite contrary
This may be a contrarian SGP, but that also leads to the higher odds for this “deep ball”.
Mullen’s squad has been a menace to the first-half total, cashing the Over in nine of their last 10 games. With both teams featuring run-oriented, methodically-paced identities, it’s likely the scoring slows down in the second half if they do trade blows in the first.
UNLV vs Ohio SGP
- Ohio +6.5
- Under 65.5
- First-half Over 34.5
UNLV vs Ohio odds
- Spread: UNLV -6.5 | Ohio +6.5
- Moneyline: UNLV -250 | Ohio +200
- Over/Under: Over 65.5 | Under 65.5
UNLV vs Ohio trend to know
UNLV is 1-6 ATS in its last seven postseason games. Find more college football betting trends for UNLV vs Ohio.
How to watch UNLV vs Ohio
| Location | Ford Center At The Star, Frisco, TX |
| Date | Tuesday, December 23, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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