Expert Touchdown Picks for NFL Week 5

Cashing anytime touchdown bets in Week 5 relies on identifying green-zone usage and mismatch nightmares.

Emmanuel Wilson headlines our card with secure volume inside the 10-yard line, while Malachi Fields provides elite value across multiple scoring avenues.

See what other players are predicted to find paydirt as our expert NFL picks target the best touchdown edges on the market.

NFL touchdown picks for Week 5

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.

Matchup	Pick
Eagles vs Jaguars	Bhayshul Tuten 51%
Bears vs Packers	Christian Watson 37%
Texans vs Titans	Nico Collins 41%
Bengals vs Dolphins	Mike Gesicki 28%
Raiders vs Patriots	Ashton Jeanty 46%
Vikings vs Saints	Aaron Jones 51%
Browns vs Jets	Harold Fannin Jr. 31%
Colts vs Steelers	Jaylen Warren 53%
Giants vs Commanders	Malachi Fields 17%
Broncos vs Chargers	Tre Harris 29%
Lions vs Cardinals	Sam LaPorta 36%
49ers vs Seahawks	Emanuel Wilson 53%
Ravens vs Falcons	Drake London 42%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Expert NFL touchdown picks for Week 4

Eagles vs Jaguars: Bhayshul Tuten

The Eagles surrendered two rushing touchdowns in Week 4, while Tuten has been a force for the Jaguars, averaging an elite 4.02 yards after contact per carry and boasting a 109.6 PFF elusive rating.

He’s also found the end zone twice while handling 56.3% of the red-zone rushes for Jacksonville, including nine across the past three games.

I recommend Tuten to score up to 54%.

Check out Neil Parker's full Eagles vs. Jaguars predictions.

Bears vs Packers: Christian Watson

Christian Watson has been Green Bay’s leading receiver and has scored half of the team’s touchdowns so far this season. He’ll be matched up with Bears corner Jaylon Johnson for much of the game, which could spell a huge day for Watson. 

Johnson has not had a  single pass deflection through four games, and he’s allowed a passer rating of 118.8 when quarterbacks target him. Receivers are gaining 16.5 yards per catch against him. He ranks 99th in pass coverage at PFF and his overall PFF rating puts him 91st among cornerbacks.

Check out Shawn Krest's full Bears vs. Packers predictions.

Texans vs Titans: Nico Collins

Play up to 45%. 

I'm sticking with Collins for my anytime touchdown pick. He's already found the end zone three times in two contests, including a pair of scores in the loss to Dallas.

Tennessee is allowing touchdowns on 66.7% of opponent red-zone trips, and Collins has commanded 43% of Houston's red-zone targets when healthy. He's also turned two of his three looks inside the 20 into touchdowns.

With Collins commanding such a significant share of Houston’s red-zone opportunities and Tennessee struggling to get stops inside the 20, I like Stroud’s top target to find paydirt again.

Check out Quinn Allen's full Texans vs. Titans predictions.

Bengals vs Dolphins: Mike Gesicki

Playable to 29%.

Miami's zone defense has not been good early in 2026, which has allowed opposing tight ends to have a lot of success when playing the Dolphins. Miami ranks 32nd in DVOA against tight ends, allowing 78.9 receiving yards per game to the position. In Week 4, T.J. Hockenson caught all 13 of his targets against the Dolphins. Overall, Miami linebackers Jordyn Brooks and Jacob Rodriguez allowed 18 receptions on 20 targets against Minnesota.

Mike Gesicki saw an expanded role after Ja'Marr Chase exited Week 4 early due to a concussion, finishing with 5 targets and 40 receiving yards. If Chase is forced to miss this weekend's game, Gesicki is likely to be one of the team's primary options through the air. Even if Chase is on the field, Gesicki is a good bet to find space to operate against a poor defense.

Check out Nick Galiada's full Bengals vs. Dolphins predictions.

Raiders vs Patriots: Ashton Jeanty

Ashton Jeanty has established himself as the Raiders’ go-to option in the running game, with 78 carries through four games. He hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown yet this season, but his heavy workload should continue to give him opportunities near the goal line.

Jeanty has also been a key part of Las Vegas’ passing attack, recording two receiving touchdowns and 19 receptions this season. With his involvement in both phases of the offense, he remains a strong candidate to find the end zone this week.

Check out Ed Scimia's full Raiders vs. Patriots predictions.

Vikings vs Saints: Aaron Jones

I'd trade Aaron Jones' anytime touchdown probability up to 55% because NOLA's defense has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including an NFL-worst nine rushing touchdowns. Jones is also Minnesota's primary ball-carrier with Jordan Mason on IR.

Jones is a legitimate receiving threat out of the backfield, and Minnesota's other weapons should create favorable one-on-one matchups against New Orleans' linebackers.

Murray's mobility also makes it harder for the Saints to key on Jones in short yardage situations. Between his workload and receiving role, Jones has multiple paths to score.

Check out Geoff Clark's full Vikings vs. Saints predictions.

Browns vs Jets: Harold Fannin Jr.

Play up to 35%. 

Harold Fannin Jr has played an integral part in Cleveland's success. The big-bodied tight end has a team-best three touchdowns, and all three of his red-zone targets have resulted in scores.

He's been a reliable weapon for quarterback Deshaun Watson, posting a 20% target share through the first month. That type of involvement gives Fannin a strong floor, but his usage near the goal line is what really stands out.

The Browns clearly trust him in scoring situations, and his size makes him a difficult matchup for linebackers and defensive backs. With Fannin consistently involved in the passing game and already establishing himself as one of Watson's preferred red-zone options, another score is firmly in play.

Check out Quinn Allen's full Browns vs. Jets predictions.

Colts vs Steelers: Jaylen Warren

This number is a gift from Kalshi, and I recommend Warren to score to 60% due to his recent run and go-to role out of the backfield.

In addition to the highlighted Indy shortcomings against the run, the Colts have allowed four rushing touchdowns to running backs through four games.

Check out Neil Parker's full Colts vs. Steelers predictions.

Giants vs Commanders: Malachi Fields

Malachi Fields has made such an impression in his rookie year with the Giants that he's been called on for at least 65% of the snaps in every game so far. That signals ample TD opportunity.

He scored his first career touchdown last weekend against the Arizona Cardinals on a 12-yard toss from Winston, and this is a nice price to repeat the trick on Sunday, especially with the Commanders giving up 14 TDs through their first four outings this season.

At 6'4, Fields is an ideal red zone target, and it's worth noting that Nabers, Skattebo and Likely were all on the injury report this week. I'd bet this up to +350. 

Check out Tom Oldfield's full Giants vs. Commanders predictions.

Broncos vs Chargers: Tre Harris 

Playable to 25%.

Tre Harris figures to be a focal point in the Chargers passing attack in Week 5, with Quentin Johnston already ruled out and Ladd McConkey listed as questionable due to a foot injury that forced him to exit last weekend's game early.

Harris played 66 snaps in Week 4 — the most of any Chargers skill position player. He had four first-read targets, which was more than any other wideout on the team, and that was with Johnston playing 53 snaps.

Harris is a big target at 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds, making him a great target in the red zone against the diminutive starting cornerback combination of Jahdae Barron and Kris Abrams-Draine, both of whom are 5-foot-11.

Check out Nick Galiada's full Broncos vs. Chargers predictions.

Lions vs Cardinals: Sam LaPorta  

Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown command so much attention that it’s difficult for defenses to key in on tight LaPorta, who is a game-breaker in his own right. LaPorta has caught a touchdown in two games this season, and the Cardinals have surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. 

LaPorta is Pro Football Focus’ sixth-ranked tight end, and the middle of Arizona’s defense is vulnerable in pass coverage. Cardinals starting linebackers Mack Wilson Sr. and Jack Gibbens, along with safety Budda Baker, all have failing pass-coverage grades.

Check out Geoff Clark's full Lions vs. Cardinals predictions.

49ers vs Seahawks: Emanuel Wilson

In addition to the highlighted case for Wilson to find the end zone, I also value Seattle scoring four rushing touchdowns across its past two games against San Francisco.

Wilson has handled 12 red-zone carries over the past three weeks, and his unrivaled lead role in the Seattle backfield will yield both a high-volume workload and high-value scoring opportunities again this week.

I recommend him to score up to 57%.

Check out Neil Parker's full 49ers vs. Seahawks predictions.

Ravens vs Falcons: Drake London

The Ravens will sell out to stop the run and put the game on Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. In his two games back from injury, Penix has had eyes only for WR Drake London. 

He’s been targeted 16 times in the past two outings. However, London hasn't caught a red-zone pass yet and is still hunting for his first touchdown of the season.

Baltimore has been burned by some big-name WRs, allowing guys like CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Chris Olave to ball out. 

London’s Week 5 projections are positive, including his touchdown forecasts. Most models give Atlanta's WR1 a 50%+ chance of finally finding the end zone.

Check out Jason Logan's full Ravens vs. Falcons predictions.

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