The Colts and Commanders bring vulnerable secondaries and concentrated target trees into a matchup loaded with scoring angles.
My Colts vs Commanders anytime touchdown scorer predictions spotlight Josh Downs, Stefon Diggs, Jonathan Taylor, and Darius Slayton, with one first-TD angle standing out.
Check out our other NFL picks and angles for Week 4.
Best Colts vs Commanders anytime touchdown picks
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Downs |
34% |
 Stefon Diggs |
28% |
| First TD: Jonathan Taylor |
24% |
| Long shot: Darius Slayton |
13% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Colts touchdown pick: Josh Downs
I'd trade Indianapolis WR Josh Downs' anytime touchdown probability up to 40%.
Downs leads the team in targets (24) and catches (14), and his usage should increase in London because WR Keenan Allen has been ruled out with a groin injury. Allen has the third-most targets and receptions on Indy.
Washington has one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. Downs runs most of his routes out of the slot, and Commanders nickelback Mike Sainristil has the lowest Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade out of 97 qualified cornerbacks.
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor is such a weapon that Washington's secondary is more likely to be left on an island in pass coverage because its linebackers will be focused on stopping Taylor.
Commanders touchdown pick: Stefon Diggs
Washington WR Stefon Diggs' anytime touchdown prop should be trading at least 30% because Indianapolis's pass defense isn't much better than Washington's, and Commanders WR Terry McLaurin is "doubtful".
McLaurin's absence should concentrate targets around Diggs, who leads Washington in catches (13) and receiving touchdowns (three). The Colts also rank 25th in dropback EPA per play, per RBSDM.com.
Diggs frequently works from the slot, where Indianapolis nickelback Justin Walley is its lowest-graded starting cornerback. Even Colts cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward have struggled this season.
Washington second-string QB Marcus Mariota also just threw three touchdowns against the Seattle Seahawks. If he can create tight-window completions against that secondary, Diggs should have scoring opportunities against Indy.
First touchdown scorer pick: Jonathan Taylor
I'd trade Jonathan Taylor's first touchdown probability up to 30% because he's such a consistent scorer.
Taylor has four rushing touchdowns this season after leading the NFL with 18 last year. It was his second time leading the league in rushing touchdowns.
The All-Pro has scored a rushing or receiving touchdown in 50 of his 88 career regular-season and playoff games, a 57% hit rate.
More importantly for this market, Washington owns the NFL's worst defensive Stuff rate, according to Pro.NFL.com, while Indianapolis annually fields one of the league's better offensive lines.
If the Colts get into the red zone first, they are going to Taylor.
Long-shot touchdown pick: Darius Slayton
Signed a couple of weeks ago after being released by the New York Giants, Indianapolis WR Darius Slayton could get a lot of playing time in his team debut with Allen out.
Colts QB Daniel Jones and Slayton played together in New York from 2019-24, connecting on 12 of Slayton's 22 career touchdown catches.
Slayton lines up wide and runs a lot of vertical routes, and Commanders outside cornerback Amik Robertson is the second-highest-graded player at his position, per PFF.
That means Slayton will have one-on-one opportunities, and I could see Jones running a play-action deep shot to him. I'm willing to trade this at a prop under 15%.
Colts vs Commanders touchdown combo
Jonathan Taylor
Stefon Diggs
Indianapolis getting on the board first through Taylor makes sense, and Washington should have to answer through the air.
The Commanders own the NFL's worst defensive Stuff rate, while Taylor remains the Colts' most reliable finisher near the goal line.
Indy scoring first should force Washington to be more aggressive. With McLaurin doubtful, Diggs is the obvious candidate to absorb more high-value targets.
He already leads Washington in catches and receiving touchdowns, while his slot matchup gives Mariota a favorable place to attack when the Commanders need points.
- TD picks: 9-16, -5.06 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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