Our football experts' Week 4 prop picks have you covered for the best markets worth targeting across Sunday's action.
The best NFL picks are headlined by Rashee Rice spearheading the Kansas City Chiefs' passing attack in an AFC West battle against the Las Vegas Raiders, with a pair of undefeated teams set to do battle in Sin City.
NFL prop picks for Week 4
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| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Coltsvs  Commanders |
Taylor o89.5 rushing yards 53% |
 Cardinalsvs  Giants |
Brissett o1.5 passing TDs 43% |
 Patriotsvs  Bills |
Moore o3.5 receptions 61% |
 Jetsvs  Bears |
Swift o79.5 rushing + receiving yards 56% |
 Cowboysvs  Texans |
Ferguson o23.5 receiving yards 53% |
 Ramsvs  Eagles |
Nacua o5.5 receptions 58% |
 Packersvs  Buccaneers |
Love o1.5 passing TDs 49% |
 Titansvs  Ravens |
Spears o14.5 rushing yards 53% |
 Jaguarsvs  Bengals |
Washington o72.5 receiving yards 53% |
 Dolphinsvs  Vikings |
Washington o3.5 receptions 59% |
 Chiefsvs  Raiders |
Rice o54.5 receiving yards 53% |
 Chargersvs  Seahawks |
Herbert o19.5 rushing yards 57% |
 Broncosvs  49ers |
Dobbins u59.5 rushing yards 55% |
 Lionsvs  Panthers |
Hubbard o18.5 receiving yards 52% |
 Falconsvs  Saints |
London o79.5 receiving yards 53% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert NFL prop picks for Week 4
Colts vs. Commanders: Jonathan Taylor Over 89.5 rushing yards
Colts star Jonathan Taylor is sixth in rushing yards after three weeks despite Indianapolis handing it off on only 44% of snaps.
This trip to London is the first time Indy has been a favorite, setting up a rare run-positive game script for Taylor.
He faces a Washington defense that ranks well against the run, but that has a lot to do with how bad the Commanders are at protecting against the pass. Foes are throwing at the fifth-highest rate against this defense and doing so successfully.
Why eat burgers when you can have prime rib, right?
Projections for Taylor range from 86 to 100 yards, with most models at 90+. My number comes out to 95+ yards from Indy’s stud RB.
Check out our full Colts vs. Commanders predictions!
Cardinals vs. Giants: Jacoby Brissett Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Brissett threw for two touchdowns last week against the San Francisco 49ers, and the Giants allowed six touchdown passes through the first two weeks of the season.
The New York defensive injuries aren’t being fully accounted for in this prop, and I’d recommend Brissett for two-plus passing touchdowns to 50% because the Giants are being given too much credit for a strong defensive game in miserable weather against the Tennessee Titans in Week 3.
Check out our full Cardinals vs. Giants predictions!
Patriots vs. Bills: DJ Moore Over 3.5 receptions
DJ Moore has been a welcome sight for this offense, and Allen certainly loves him, targeting the wideout 18 times across the two weeks he's suited up.
Against a stingy secondary, I'm staying away from his receiving yards and honing in on his volume of targets, which should give us enough receptions to go over this number.
Moore lines up both outside and in the slot, and Buffalo loves to scheme him open. With a 33% target share, we're getting a good number here.
Check out our full Patriots vs. Bills predictions!
Jets vs. Bears: De'Andre Swift Over 79.5 rushing and receiving yards
While the Bears deploy Swift primarily in the running game, he's also capable of making noise in the passing attack. Swift has eight catches for 68 yards over his first three games, and has been targeted nine times over the past two weeks.
The result is that Swift has had at least 88 total yards from scrimmage in each of Chicago's first three games. I see that streak continuing without issue against the Jets, and I'm taking Swift to get 80+ combined yards at 60% or lower.
Check out our full Jets vs. Bears predictions!
Cowboys vs. Texans: Jake Ferguson Over 23.5 receiving yards
Ferguson has seen his involvement in the Cowboys’ passing attack tick up over the past two games, drawing a total of nine passes for seven receptions and a collective 66 yards.
He’s run 82 routes on 128 total snaps, garnering a 10.9% target share through three games, which is pretty good when you consider CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are on the field.
Ferguson faces a Houston defense that has been bullied by tight ends this season. The Texans have watched rival TEs catch 18 of 21 pass attempts for 213 yards – fourth most in the NFL.
Houston’s linebacking corps is thin, and its top coverage LBs — Azeez Al-Shaair, Henry To'oTo'o, and Jake Hansen — are either injured or out in Week 4.
Projections for Ferguson are very positive, ranging from 25 yards to a ceiling of 38 yards. My number shakes out to 31+ from the Dallas TE.
Check out our full Cowboys vs. Texans predictions!
Rams vs. Eagles: Puka Nacua Over 5.5 receptions
Playable to 60%.
Puka Nacua "looked really good" in practice this week as he prepares to return from a two-game absence due to injury. Nacua cleared this number in 14 of 19 games in 2025 and still caught five passes in Week 1 against the 49ers despite playing at less than 100% health.
Last season, Nacua ranked sixth among qualified wide receivers in target rate and paced the Rams' passing attack with 118 first-read targets. He's the clear No. 1 option in Los Angeles' passing game and should have plenty of opportunities in Week 4 against a Philadelphia pass defense that ranks 20th in DVOA and 23rd in EPA per play against the pass.
Check out our full Rams vs. Eagles predictions!
Packers vs. Buccaneers: Jordan Love Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Play to 53%.
Love Over 1.5 passing touchdowns is another prop I like this weekend. The Packers quarterback has thrown exactly two TD passes in all three games this season, giving him six through the opening three weeks.
The matchup also sets up Green Bay to rely on Love. Tampa Bay has the No. 2 rushing defense in the NFL, while the Packers rank dead-last in rushing offense at just 48.7 yards per game. That means the visitors will lean heavily into their pass game, with numerous dangerous targets downfield.
Tampa's red-zone defense has been strong, but Love's consistent touchdown production and Green Bay's pass-heavy profile make this worth a look.
Check out our full Packers vs. Buccaneers predictions!
Titans vs. Ravens: Tyjae Spears Over 14.5 rushing yards
I'd be willing to trade up to Spears 17+ rushing yards because, low-key, Tennessee has a two-headed backfield. First-string RB Tony Pollard is playing 53.4% of the snaps, and Spears is playing 44.2%. The Ravens rank 21st in defensive rushing success rate, per RBSDM.com.
Spears should get to run against lighter boxes because he's the bigger receiving threat, with roughly double Pollard's career catch-to-touch rate. Even if Tennessee falls behind, Spears could still clear this number on draws against softer defensive fronts as Baltimore protects a late lead.
Check out our full Titans vs. Ravens predictions!
Jaguars vs. Bengals: Parker Washington Over 72.5 receiving yards
It's no secret now - Parker Washington is Jacksonville's No.1 receiver, and I'm buying into his 30.3% target share through the first three weeks.
Washington finished with 80+ receiving yards in each of the Jaguars' first two outings, and only a run-heavy game script denied him a similar tally last weekend. Dating back to last season, he's gone past this O/U number in six of his past seven contests.
On the heels of Cincinnati's defense coughing up chunk plays in Pittsburgh, a deep threat like Washington won't need many catches to cash this Over, especially with the visitors surely leaning into the passing game at Paycor Stadium.
Check out our full Jaguars vs. Bengals predictions!
Dolphins vs. Vikings: Malik Washington Over 3.5 receptions
Play to 60%.
Malik Washington has been one of the lone bright spots for Miami's offense. He leads the team with 12 receptions for 152 yards while averaging 7.66 targets per game.
That volume is one clear reason I don't think reaching four catches will be a big ask this weekend, and Washington has also cashed the Over in receptions in back-to-back games.
The Vikings' weakest area defensively has been against the pass, where they rank 22nd in the NFL. With Washington consistently drawing opportunities, Over 3.5 receptions is a very manageable number.
Check out our full Dolphins vs. Vikings predictions!
Chiefs vs. Raiders: Rashee Rice Over 54.5 receiving yards
The Raiders allowed the ninth-highest dropback success rate in Week 3, and the Chiefs' go-to receiver has caught 11 of his 15 targets for 171 yards.
His 15.6 yards per reception and 7.4 aDoT are also encouraging marks during the two-week stretch, and I also value Rice garnering 18.7% of targets in the offense for the year.
I recommend this prop to 54%.
Check out our full Chiefs vs. Raiders predictions!
Chargers vs. Seahawks: Justin Herbert Over 19.5 rushing yards
I'm counting on Justin Herbert playing hero ball Sunday, so I'd play his rushing prop to 22+ yards.
The Chargers rank 28th in ESPN's pass-block win rate, while Seattle ranks second in pass-rush win rate. Herbert could be running for his life this weekend, and he's rushed for at least 21 yards in 13 of his last 20 games.
Kalshi gives Los Angeles just a 26% chance of winning, and that potential game script works, too. Herbert has cleared 21 rushing yards in seven of his nine losses since last season.
Check out our full Chargers vs. Seahawks predictions!
Broncos vs. 49ers: J.K. Dobbins Under 59.5 rushing yards
I'd take the Under for Denver RB J.K. Dobbins down to 55.5 rushing yards. According to Pro Football Focus, Dobbins ranks 54th out of 56 qualified running backs, plays only 42.2% of Denver's offensive snaps, and averages just 3.5 yards per carry.
More importantly, this correlates with my Niners side. If San Francisco plays from ahead, Denver could be forced away from the run in the second half. That's a problem against a 49ers defense that ranks 10th in yards per rush allowed.
Check out our full Broncos vs. 49ers predictions!
Lions vs. Panthers: Chuba Hubbard Over 18.5 receiving yards
Running back Chuba Hubbard drew a season-high four targets in Week 3, with the Panthers running low on receiving options.
Hubbard’s role in the passing game continues to peak, with WRs Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette questionable. He’ll also be a checkdown option for a hobbled Young when Detroit brings the heat… and it will.
Hubbard had 28 receiving yards in the loss to Cleveland last weekend and faced a similar blitz-happy defense from Chicago in Week 1. He snatched three balls for 38 yards while fellow RB Jonathan Brooks struck on a 48-yard catch-and-run lined up as an outside receiver.
Brooks is out for the season now, leaving Hubbard as the primary pass-catching RB. His projections range from 11.5 yards to 22 yards, with my number coming out to 19+ receiving yards, respecting the higher ceiling considering the circumstances.
Check out our full Lions vs. Panthers predictions!
Falcons vs. Saints: Drake London Over 79.5 receiving yards
It’s tough to ignore the chemistry between Michael Penix and Drake London. The wide receiver saw 10 targets last week on a short week and turned them into a monster nine-catch, 194-yard performance.
Over the last seven games these two have played together, London has topped 100 yards in all but one. He’s averaging 120 receiving yards per game with Penix getting him the ball.
London’s projection this week is 86 yards, and the market has already moved after opening at 72.5. It might be too late for that number, but the indoor setting, the potential pass-heavy game script as a road underdog, the Saints’ bottom-five success-rate defense against both the run and pass, and the cluster of linebacker injuries all have me looking at 80+ and his 100+ alternatives at 34%.
Check out our full Falcons vs. Saints predictions!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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