At first glance, this AFC West war was shaping up to be one of the best games on the Week 18 board.
However, line movement indicates the Los Angeles Chargers will lean toward resting their starters when they visit the Denver Broncos.
My early Chargers vs. Broncos predictions and NFL picks expect Denver to run rampant on January 4.
Chargers vs Broncos predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Chargers vs Broncos spread pick: Broncos -7.5
The Denver Broncos can score the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win in Week 18. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Chargers can still move up the conference pecking order, but would need a victory and a couple of big favorites to fall in their season finale.
With that in mind, there’s a strong inclination the Bolts will bench the first teams, leading to a massive line move for this Week 18 spread.
The Broncos opened as 3-point home chalk and skyrocketed to -7.5 in the opening hours of action Sunday night.
If L.A. does officially sit the starters, perhaps this spread keeps rising and offers value to buy back the Chargers later in the week. At this point, I’d go Broncos or nothing.
Early Chargers vs Broncos total pick: Under 39.5
The total also made significant moves, opening as high as 42.5 points and nosediving to 39.5 O/U.
If the Chargers bench the starters, you’re looking at QB2 Trey Lance taking on a motivated Broncos defense, which ranks among the NFL’s elite. Los Angeles is already thin at the skill positions and offensive line, so there’s not much to work with in Week 18.
The Broncos will likely be aggressive on offense in the first half to build a big lead, then hit cruise control in the second half. That said, Denver has a bad habit of starting slow and needing a second-half surge to pull out the win.
Even after dropping a field goal, this Over/Under total will take another hit if and when the Bolts announce their Week 18 plans. I could see this total dipping to 36.5 if L.A. rests the first teamers.
Chargers vs Broncos odds
- Chargers vs. Broncos spread: Broncos -7.5 (-106)
- Chargers vs. Broncos moneyline: Chargers +315, Broncos -400
- Chargers vs. Broncos Over/Under: 39.5
How to watch Chargers vs Broncos
- Chargers vs. Broncos matchup
- Date: Sunday, January 3, 2026, 4:25 p.m. ET
- City: Denver, CO
- Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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