The Arizona Cardinals and Chicago Cubs begin a three-game set at Wrigley Field to kickstart a busy weekend of baseball Friday, May 1.
My top Diamondbacks vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks expect the North Siders to take the series opener at The Friendly Confines this afternoon.
Who will win Diamondbacks vs Cubs today: Cubs moneyline (-133)
Arizona Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen is being mispriced in this moneyline.
His 14.2 K% and 24.0% called+swinging strike percentage are both career-low marks, and he’s also served up a career-high 45.8% hard-hit rate. It’s also reflected in his 4.95 xERA and 4.33 xFIP both checking in well above his 3.14 ERA.
So, with the Chicago Cubs entering on a 12-3 heater while pacing the majors in wOBA and striking out at the fourth-lowest clip in baseball, I’m anticipating Gallen to run into trouble navigating a deep and potent lineup.
COVERS INTEL: Arizona relievers were tasked with a hefty 12 1/3 innings the past three games, and the Diamondbacks also have the fifth-worst bullpen ERA in baseball.
Diamondbacks vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (+115)
Cubs starter Colin Rea is a capable innings eater, but he doesn’t have a high-end collection of offerings, and his 4.56 ERA and 4.61 xERA as a starter since the beginning of 2023 are run-of-the-mill metrics.
As a result, I also anticipate the Diamondbacks having their own success on the base paths to push this total Over the number. Arizona is averaging a healthy 4.7 runs per game while ranking 11th in wOBA and fifth in ISO, after all.
Additionally, I also think the wind blowing in at a 10-12 mph clip at Wrigley Field is being overpriced into this total. It might hold up a ball or two at the warning track, but it isn’t blistering enough to truly limit this pair of capable lineups that both have strong trends to the Over.
- ML/RL bets: 15-9, +7.18 units
- Over/Under bets: 7-6, +0.06 units
Diamondbacks vs Cubs odds
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks +120 | Cubs -140
- Run line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-175) | Cubs -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-115) | Under 7 (-105)
Diamondbacks vs Cubs trend
The Diamondbacks have hit the Over in 29 of their last 50 games (+9.35 Units / 17% ROI), and the Cubs have gone Over the number in 17 of their last 23 games (+11.40 Units / 44% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Cubs.
How to watch Diamondbacks vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Friday, May 1, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | Dbacks.TV, Marquee |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Zac Gallen (1-1, 3.14 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Colin Rea (3-1, 4.61 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Cubs latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Cubs weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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