Broncos vs Seahawks Monday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Carroll, Geno Spoonfeed Tyler Lockett

Those NFL schedule makers know what they’re doing. 

Thanks to the non-conference carousel, Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season comes to a close with the Denver Broncos visiting the Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football.

Of course, one of the biggest events of the offseason was Seattle trading franchise quarterback Russell Wilson to Denver, instantly making the Broncos a Super Bowl contender and setting up one of the most intriguing games on the season-opening slate.

Denver has drawn a ton of money and bet count heading into this contest, causing a significant adjustment in the spread from the opener in the spring. That movement likely isn’t done yet, as this Monday nighter will be a key game for bookies and bettors.

We analyze the spread and total for Monday Night Football and give our best NFL picks and predictions for Broncos at Seahawks.

Broncos vs Seahawks best odds

Broncos vs Seahawks picks and predictions

The Seahawks have a blown tire in the run game with rookie RB Kenneth Walker hurt, leaving Rashad Penny as the team’s only true early-down running back. That could have Pete Carroll in a tough spot if the ground game can’t get going.

This offense didn’t even like the pass when it had Russell Wilson under center but considering the RB situation and the fact that Seattle could be playing from behind most of the game (if this spread is correct), the Seahawks will lean on Geno Smith and the passing playbook a lot more Monday night.

His favorite target is WR Tyler Lockett, who will feature in the slot to cater to Smith’s lack of downfield pop (average of just 7.0 intended air yards per throw in 2021). As my handsome Covers counterpart Josh Inglis pointed out in his prop picks for MNF, Lockett was targeted on 13 of Smith’s 24 pass attempts in his last start against Jacksonville in 2021.

Lockett caught 12 of those balls – his busiest day of the entire season - and averaged 4.5 receptions per game in a very up-and-down 2021 campaign for the Seahawks.

With a solid Broncos secondary taking away DK Metcalf and the Denver pass rush pushing around the Seahawks' awful offensive line, Smith will hear footsteps and hurry his throws to Lockett as a short pass pressure release.

My best bet: Tyler Lockett Over 3.5 receptions (-155)

Broncos vs Seahawks betting preview

Jump to:
•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know

Spread analysis

Once this matchup was announced in the spring, books opened Denver as a 4.5-point road favorite – staying lower due to Seattle still being mentioned in many rumors surrounding top QB options. However, when it became clear the Seahawks were sticking with either Drew Lock or Geno Smith, the action came in hard on Denver and hasn’t really stopped.

This spread jumped straight to Broncos -6 in August and has spiked to as high as -7 with kickoff a day away as of this writing. Covers Consensus shows 73% of picks on the visitor and sportsbooks like WynnBET 

Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under hit the board at 41.5 points back in May and has slowly climbed all offseason, getting as high as 44.5 with kickoff a day away.

With Wilson under center, Denver has structured the offense to his strength and the Broncos will want to showcase their passing prowess after not only trading away a number of picks for the veteran QB but also recently signing him to a long-term deal.

Seattle is thin in the running game and could be forced to throw more than Pete Carroll would like, which leads to bigger gains and the clock stopping more. All good for fans of the Over.

Broncos vs Seahawks game info

• Location: Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
• Date: Monday, September 12, 2022
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Broncos vs Seahawks key injuries

Find our latest NFL injury reports.

Broncos vs Seahawks weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

Broncos vs Seahawks betting trend to know

The Seahawks were a remarkable 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS in home openers with Russell Wilson under center. So, what happens now that he’s on the other side of the line? Stay tuned... Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Seahawks.

Pages related to this topic