After an insane Sunday slate, Week 1 comes to a close on Monday Night Football when the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs face off at Arrowhead.
Our Broncos vs. Chiefs expert picks believe in the visitors, with Patrick Mahomes getting tested early and often.
For more NFL picks, check out our complete Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions!
Broncos vs Chiefs expert picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
 Probability |
|
|---|---|
 Jason Logan: Kenneth Walker 60+ rushing yards |
50% |
 Josh Inglis: Patrick Mahomes 15+ rushing yards |
50% |
 Joe Osborne: Under 43.5 |
52% |
 Jon Metler: Broncos +2.5 |
50% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Jason Logan’s expert pick: Kenneth Walker 60+ rushing yards
Price: 50% at Kalshi
The Kansas City Chiefs brought back offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who wants to establish the run to set up his play action schemes while also keeping the heat off Patrick Mahomes and his surgically repaired knee.
The Denver Broncos will look to attack Mahomes with the blitz and test his mobility, and giving the Broncos reason to worry about Kenneth Walker can go a long way in protecting the QB.
Walker looked strong in the summer and Week 1 projections sit as high as 75 yards on the ground tonight. I’d play 60+ yards up to 55% on Monday Night Football.
Josh Inglis' expert pick: Patrick Mahomes 15+ rushing yards
Price: 50% at Kalshi
The Broncos will force Patrick Mahomes to use his new knee ligaments, and missing your starting left tackle and replacing him with an undrafted free agent vs. one of the best pass rushes in football suggests Mahomes might have to use his bionic knee.
His rushing prop is usually 25.5 yards, so the injury is heavily priced into the line.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Under 43.5
Price: 52% at Kalshi
Six straight Broncos vs. Chiefs meetings have gone Under — averaging just 33.7 combined points — with five failing to reach 40.
The rosters have changed, but this opener offers fresh reasons to expect another defensive battle. Mahomes and Nix are each returning from major injuries and face defenses that ranked in the Top 5 in points allowed last season. That’s a tough spot for either offense to come out firing.
Jon Metler’s expert pick: Broncos +2.5
Price: 50% at Kalshi
I'll take the Denver Broncos catching 2.5 points at 50%. I price the Broncos closer to a 1-point underdog in this spot, so there's value at that number.
In Week 1, with a fully healthy offensive line, I have much more faith in a Bo Nix-led offense against the Chiefs' pass rush. If this were later in the season and Garett Bolles or Quinn Meinerz were banged up or unavailable, my opinion would be different.
When I'm backing the Broncos, I don't want to see Nix forced into off-platform throws, so having the key pieces of the offensive line healthy in Week 1 is a major factor for me.
How to watch Broncos vs Chiefs
| Location | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Monday, September 14, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN/ABC |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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