I'm running back a lot of guys I backed on Sunday because a good spot is a good spot! There's so much to get into with the MLB player props market today.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Monday, Sept. 14, including why Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to light up Reynaldo Lopez.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Pete Crow-Armstrong |
Over 1.5 total bases | -116 |
 Teoscar Hernandez |
Over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI | -124 |
 Aaron Judge |
Over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI | -124 |
Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 total bases (-116)
Chicago Cubs superstar Pete Crow-Armstrong hit multiple balls to the warning track on Sunday, all above 103.2 mph. The outfielder has been making a ton of hard contact over his last 10 games, and he's bound to find some open grass.
Crow-Armstrong owns a .487 SLG, a jaw-dropping .709 xSLG, and a .256 ISO over that stretch while posting a 55.2% hard-hit rate and 20.7% barrel rate.
This evening he finds himself with an elite rating on Batters-Box, where he's not only cashed this prop nearly 54% of the time, but also covers 100% of Atlanta Braves right-hander Reynaldo Lopez's pitch mix.
The last 60 lefties Lopez has faced own a .359 xBA and .606 xSLG.
I was able to get this prop at -101, but I wouldn't pay more than $1.20 for it. If it gets past that, take his alternative line at 2.5 hits, runs, or RBI, or sprinkle a little on the home run and double.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLBN
Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI (-124)
He cashed for us in the matchup last week against Cincinnati Reds left-hander Nick Lodolo, nearly producing a little league home run as well. However, he didn't give us the boom we were seeking. Hopefully tonight Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Teoscar Hernandez can come through once again.
Hernandez has covered this prop nearly 60% of the time through 44 elite ratings on the road, while hitting a double 34% of the time and leaving the yard over 20% as well.
He owns a .676 SLG and .235 ISO over his last 10 games while producing a hard-hit rate of 53.6% and a 14.3% barrel rate. In his last 30 at-bats versus a left-hander, he also sports an .833 SLG and .416 ISO, while nearly making 60% hard contact and posting over a 26% barrel rate.
Lodolo has allowed a hard-hit rate of nearly 50% against the last 60 right-handed hitters he's faced, while also giving up a 16.2% barrel rate and 73% elevation rate. Those righties have put up a .418 xBA and .748 xSLG.
Do not pay more than this current price. Take Hernandez's total bases if you're unable to get a better number.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNLA, CINR
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI (-124)
It's extremely hard to overlook a guy who has gone over this prop more than 57% of the time across the last three seasons amid a 373-game sample size. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge is also drawing a pitcher who's been allowing a 57.1% hard-hit rate, nearly a 20% barrel rate, and a 76.2% elevation rate to the last 30 right-handed hitters he's faced.
That's why we're backing the captain of the New York Yankees to be productive against Minnesota Twins right-hander Dean Kremer.
Judge is coming off a brutal Sunday after going 0-for-3 with three strikeouts. Hopefully, the change of scenery can get him back on track, as could taking on a pitcher who owns a 7.62 ERA and 1.85 WHIP while allowing a barrel rate over 13%.
If you're not in the juice-paying business, take his bases.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, MNNT
- Prop picks: 495-976, +1.4 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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