It's a massive day for favorites!
My MLB moneyline predictions for Monday's slate back plenty of pricey favorites, including the Cleveland Guardians.
Before we dive in, be sure to check out all our MLB picks for Monday, Sept. 14.
MLB moneyline picks for Sept. 14
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Dodgers vs  Reds |
67% |
 White Soxvs  Guardians |
58% |
 Tigers vs  Blue Jays |
56% |
 Orioles vs  Mets |
54% |
 Braves vs  Cubs |
55% |
 Yankees vs  Twins |
54% |
 Giants vs  Cardinals |
57% |
 Padres vs  Rockies |
66% |
 Mariners vs  Angels |
49% |
 Marlins vs  Diamondbacks |
55% |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of Sept. 14.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for Sept. 14
Dodgers vs Reds: Dodgers
Dodgers win probability: 66%
I am typically highly against paying this much juice for a team to secure a regular-season win. But with left-hander Nick Lodolo owning a 5.52 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over his last three starts, and the Reds' bats ice cold, the Dodgers are the play.
The Monstars of L.A. finally got their mojo back, as they've posted a 133 wRC+, .359 wOBA, and .816 OPS over their last six games.
White Sox vs Guardians: Guardians
Guardians win probability: 58%
As someone who has invested a lot into this White Sox team this season, they are a corpse. This team is done. I do not see them winning this series, or even a game in this series.
They have Sean Burke on the bump tonight, who owns an 8.10 ERA over his last three starts. The lineup has posted a 77 wRC+, 28.6% strikeout rate, and 6.3% barrel rate over its last six games.
Guardians or nothing. If you find a prop for the Guardians to sweep, take it.
Tigers vs Blue Jays: Blue Jays
Blue Jays win probability: 56%
Name a hotter team than the Toronto Blue Jays right now. I’ll wait.
They own a wRC+ above 122 over their last 21 games while also posting an OPS above .781 and a strikeout rate below 20% during that span.
With how bad Troy Melton has been, the Blue Jays should tee off on him early and often at home this evening.
Orioles vs Mets: Mets
Mets win probability: 54%
The Mets' bats may be too hot to fade, as they own a sub-150 wRC+, .379 wOBA, and .869 OPS over their last six games. The Orioles have been alright at the dish, but nowhere near the Mets.
Neither Brandon Young nor Jonah Tong has been great over their last few outings, so we're trusting the hotter bats here.
Braves vs Cubs: Cubs
Cubs win probability: 55%
Neither pitcher in this matchup has been performing well recently, and neither have the Braves' bats, which is why we're on the Cubs this evening.
Atlanta has owned a wRC+ under 100 for over a month now while posting just a .134 ISO and 5.8% barrel rate over its last six games. Meanwhile, the Cubs' bats have been on fire for quite some time now.
I have zero trust in the Braves.
Yankees vs Twins: Yankees
Yankees win probability: 54%
The Yankees getting Aaron Judge back brings a massive boost to the lineup. Even if he's not performing at his best, his presence alone is lethal.
Dean Kremer has also been so atrocious that he must be faded here. He owns a 7.62 ERA and 1.85 WHIP while allowing a 13.64% barrel rate over his last three outings.
On the other side, Will Warren has put up a 1.17 ERA and 0.91 WHIP during that stretch.
Giants vs Cardinals: Cardinals
Cardinals win probability: 57%
With the Giants losing Rafael Devers to injury, the morale this San Francisco lineup had been enjoying over the last few weeks is likely gone. Devers was on another planet, producing so many runs for this team, and they likely won't be able to make up for his loss.
Plus, Cardinals southpaw Quinn Mathews has been rock solid for the birds.
Birds or nothing.
Padres vs Rockies: Padres
Padres win probability: 66%
Why on earth would we even debate trusting old man Tomoyuki Sugano to hold down anything?
San Diego owns a 143 wRC+, .372 wOBA, and .852 OPS over its last six games. Meanwhile, Sugano has an ERA pushing 8.00.
Mariners vs Angels: Angels
Angels win probability: 49%
It's never the most exciting play to back the Angels to secure a win because they don't really know how.
However, when Reid Detmers is on the mound, they normally get a good chance to come out on top, as he owns a 0.55 ERA and 0.76 WHIP over his last five outings.
The Angels' bats have come alive lately and should be able to tee off on Mariners southpaw Kade Anderson, who has posted a 4.11 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in his last three starts.
Marlins vs Diamondbacks: Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks win probability: 55%
Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara has completely fallen off a cliff, sporting an 8.27 ERA and 1.65 WHIP while allowing a hard-hit rate over 40% in his last three outings.
Diamondbacks right-hander Corbin Burnes looked great coming back last week, so he should be worth trusting, especially with how well Arizona's bats have been swinging.
It's the Snakes in this spot.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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