There's a tall total on the NFL odds board of 54.5 for today's matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Buffalo Bills.
My Bengals vs. Bills predictions are leaning into the shootout potential at Highmark Stadium by backing Buffalo QB Josh Allen to throw for at least two touchdowns.
Here are my best NFL picks for Sunday, December 7 ahead of this 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX.
Bengals vs Bills prediction
Bengals vs Bills Best bet: Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-125)
After throwing at least two touchdown passes in seven of his first 10 outings of 2025, Josh Allen has connected for six points only once in the past two games.
Those two contests were challenging spots, facing stingy defenses from Houston and Pittsburgh on the road. The Cincinnati Bengals, on the other hand, doesn’t put up the same barriers.
The Bengals are one of the worst pass defenses in the land and have allowed the second most passing touchdowns to opponents this season. Cincinnati is giving up 2.2 TDs through the air per game with a red-zone defense allowing foes to cross the goal line at a near 65% rate.
And it’s not just inside their 20-yard line where the Bengals fall short. They’ve allowed a league high in explosive plays. That lends itself to more passing touchdowns for Allen, considering the Buffalo Bills RZ playbook is run heavy, with both Allen and RB James Cook running it in.
Allen’s lack of passing touchdowns the past two games coincides with a laundry list of ailments for the receiving corps. That includes his favorite TD target, tight end Dalton Kincaid (questionable for Sunday).
This pass-catching group is getting healthier in Week 14, hopefully in time for a high-scoring showdown with Cincy.
Player projections for Allen range from 1.8 to 2.1 passing touchdowns on Sunday.
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Bengals vs Bills same-game parlay
The Bills could be in for a close one but I like Buffalo to pick up the win at home on a chilly day in Orchard Park.
Allen’s projections call for two touchdowns against the worst passing defense in the NFL.
With Kincaid still questionable, Dawson Knox is a live bet to find the end zone against a Cincy defense that’s been bullied by TEs.
Bengals vs Bills SGP
- Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
- Buffalo Bills moneyline
- Dawson Knox anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Brown takes full advantage
Buffalo has played three of its last four on the road and gets a boost from Bills Mafia in Week 14.
Allen passed for two or more TDs in seven of his first 10 games before a lull the last two weeks.
The Bengals have allowed a NFL-high 13 touchdowns to tight ends this season.
Chase Brown goes up against a very poor Buffalo run stop and will get goal line carries.
Bengals vs Bills SGP
- Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
- Buffalo Bills moneyline
- Dawson Knox anytime touchdown
- Chase Brown anytime touchdown
Bengals vs Bills game predictions
Bengals vs Bills moneyline prediction
With Burrow back in the mix, things could get tight in Buffalo. But the chilly December temperatures and the Bengals’ dreadful defense, Bills Mafia will have reason to blare "Mr. Brightside" on Sunday. Final score: Bills 30, Bengals 27.
Bengals vs Bills spread prediction
Buffalo opened as big as -6.5 but action on Cincinnati pushed this spread through the key number of six and now sits as low as -5.5. The Bengals offense can go blow for blow with anyone and their defense has been better in recent games.
Bengals vs Bills Over/Under prediction
While the weather will be cold in Orchard Park, there’s no wind or snow in the forecast. I was leaning Under earlier in the week, but with a clearer forecast, two soft defenses, and a pair of elite QBs, I could see this final score going Over.
Bengals vs Bills odds
- Spread: Cincinnati +5.5 (+100) | Buffalo -5.5 (-122)
- Moneyline: Cincinnati +240 | Buffalo -295
- Over/Under: Over 54.5 (-112) | Under 54.5 (-108)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Bengals vs Bills trend to know
Since 2020, Buffalo is 12-0 SU and 7-4-1 ATS in home games played between Week 14 and Week 18. Find more NFL betting trends for Bengals vs. Bills.
How to watch Bengals vs Bills
| Location | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY |
| Date | Sunday, December 7, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Bengals vs Bills latest injuries
Bengals vs Bills weather
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