Bengals @ Bills Picks & Props

With an extraordinary 22.7% Red Zone Target Rate (88th percentile) this year, Khalil Shakir has been as one of the wide receivers with the highest volume near the goal line in the league. The Buffalo offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board. The Bengals linebackers rank as the worst LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

The Bengals are a 6-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Right now, the most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (65.2% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Cincinnati Bengals. When talking about air yards, Chase Brown ranks in the lofty 81st percentile among running backs this year, totaling a remarkable 1.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more impressive than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards). Chase Brown has been in the 95th percentile when it comes to RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) with a whopping 22.3 mark this year.

The Bengals are a 6-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Right now, the most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (65.2% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Cincinnati Bengals. The running TD field reads "0" on the back of Joe Burrow's trading card this year.

James Cook has accumulated a monstrous 2.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile when it comes to RBs. (That might not seem too impressive, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage). The Buffalo offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board. James Cook's 96.4% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies a remarkable boost in his receiving talent over last year's 84.6% figure. This year, the feeble Bengals pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 86.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 6th-biggest rate in football. This year, the weak Cincinnati Bengals defense has been torched for a monstrous 0.50 receiving TDs per game to opposing RBs: the highest rate in the league.

The Bengals are a 6-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Right now, the most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (65.2% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Cincinnati Bengals. With an exceptional 29.0% Red Zone Target Share (97th percentile) this year, Ja'Marr Chase rates among the WRs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in football. After accruing 90.0 air yards per game last year, Ja'Marr Chase has produced significantly more this year, now pacing 111.0 per game.

The Buffalo offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board. Josh Allen's throwing accuracy has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 64.7% to 69.8%. The Bengals defense has yielded the most passing TDs in football: 2.08 per game this year. The Bengals linebackers rank as the worst LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

The Bengals are a 6-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Right now, the most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (65.2% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Cincinnati Bengals.