49ers vs Falcons Week 6 Picks and Predictions: ATL's ATS Success Continues

The Falcons are somehow the last undefeated ATS team in the NFL, and with a slew of injuries putting the 49ers in a tough spot, we might just see Atlanta reel off another close one, as our Week 6 NFL betting picks predict.

Shawn Wronka - Contributor at Covers.com
Oct 16, 2022 • 08:11 ET • 4 min read

Although it may not mean much to the front office or coaching staff, the 2-3 Atlanta Falcons are the only remaining undefeated team against the spread in 2022. On top of securing straight-up wins against the Seahawks and Browns, they’ve played NFC contenders extremely close, losing three games by a combined 11 points.

In Week 6, they will host another team with serious playoff aspirations when they face the San Francisco 49ers (3-2), who are fresh off of a 37-15 beatdown of the Panthers. The Niners have now won three of their last four (by a combined 57 points) and are looking to keep the momentum going ahead of next week's Super Bowl LIV rematch against the Chiefs.

See if Atlanta can keep its ATS streak alive with our 49ers vs. Falcons NFL picks and predictions for Sunday, October 16.

49ers vs Falcons best odds

49ers vs Falcons picks and predictions

Despite all the criticism head coach Arthur Smith has faced and despite key injuries to offensive playmakers like Kyle Pitts and Cordarelle Patterson, things are not nearly as bad as they should be for the Atlanta Falcons. They have two wins already and have played some of the NFC's best teams rather closely.

That included last week's 21-15 road loss to the Buccaneers, a result shrouded in controversy due to the extremely questionable roughing the passer call against Grady Jarrett following a visibly clean sack on 3rd and 5 with 3:03 left in the fourth quarter.

But it will be important for Smith and the Falcons to not linger too much on that horrendous call and refocus their attention and energy into their Week 5 matchup against the 49ers, who have been on a roll as of late. And the Falcons may be up for that challenge given that they are a much better team than their record suggests, ranking 15th in overall DVOA and 10th in offensive DVOA.

After dropping their first game to the Bears in a torrential downpour, San Francisco has since rattled off three wins in four games. Those wins included 88 points scored (29.3 per game) and just 31 points allowed (10.3 per game). Their lone loss was an 11-10 Sunday Night Football snoozefest against the Broncos in Week 3, a game they should have won had they not lost the turnover battle 3-0.

Given their play thus far, the Niners have more than earned the fifth-best overall DVOA they've notched through five weeks. That includes the top-ranked defense by DVOA, anchored by their top-ranked rushing defense and fifth-ranked passing defense.

But San Francisco comes into Sunday's game carrying some worrying injuries, with starting defensive tackles Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw out again this week. Edge rusher Nick Bosa is also questionable and free safety Jimmy Ward is out again after making his 2022 debut by playing a single snap last week before getting pulled.

To put it simply, the Niners are too short-handed on defense against a quietly proficient Atlanta offense to justify the five or so points they are laying on the road.

My best bet: Atlanta Falcons +5.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

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49ers vs Falcons spread analysis

And as mentioned previously, Atlanta is the only remaining undefeated team against the spread. And it isn't as if they’ve been covering by razor-thin margins either — their 4.8 average points covered ranks fourth in the league.

That is quite the flipping of the script following last year's ATS performance, during which the Falcons went 3-7-1 as an underdog and 0-4 in particular as a home underdog.

But that comes with the changes that have been made since, swapping out Matt Ryan for a more dynamic and mobile Marcus Mariota and with the addition of Drake London to the wide receiver corps.

49ers vs Falcons Over/Under analysis

Given Atlanta's defensive performance thus far (27th in DVOA) and the slew of injuries on the Niners' side, the Over may be the worthwhile side for Sunday's matchup.

That especially may be the case given Atlanta's particular troubles stopping the run (27th) and with San Francisco due to get things going again on the ground, ranking 21st in rushing DVOA after finishing fourth last year.

And Atlanta has yet to score less than 21 points in a contest this year, and with their 23.6 points per game ranking tenth. San Francisco's 21.6 per game ranks 16th, but if you remove their 10-point performance in the Week 1 typhoon against the Bears, they have averaged a much more respectable 24.8, which would rank eighth-best.

49ers vs Falcons betting trend to know

The Falcons are the only remaining undefeated team against the spread at 5-0, and have the fourth-highest cover average at 4.8 points against the spread. Find more NFL betting trends for 49ers vs. Falcons.

49ers vs Falcons game info

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Date: Sunday, October 16, 2022
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET

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