College football expert Jake Butt returns for Week 11 with value you can use right now.
In his conversation with Covers’ Joe Osborne, he digs into his best NCAAF picks, weighs in on Carson Beck's questionable decision-making, and discusses Iowa's not-so-secret weapon.
Oregon vs 
Iowa best bet
Pick: Iowa +6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
The road to a league title runs through the nastiest venues in America, and Iowa's Kinnick Stadium sits at the top of the list. As a home underdog against Oregon, Jake leans Hawkeyes because the building itself tilts the field.
"I don't know what it is, but Kinnick Stadium is a tough place to win," he says. "I knew this as a player. Iowa's home stadium is where college football playoff hopes go to die. In 2016 my Michigan Wolverines were undefeated and ranked No. 2 in the country going on the road for a night game at Kinnick as heavy favorites and they beat us by a field goal. I've seen them beat Ohio State. I've seen them win games they have no business winning, and yet this team, this year, they have business winning."
Jake believes Oregon vs. Iowa is going to be won or lost in the trenches.
"This is a game that's going to be decided once again at the line of scrimmage," he explains. "Iowa has one of the more dominant run blocking offensive lines and their running game is always going to be successful, but Mark Gronowski, their quarterback gives them layers. He's not Ty Simpson or Julian Sayin, but finally Iowa has a quarterback that can complete a forward pass."
Mind you, Gronowski isn't the only ace up Iowa's sleeve.
"Iowa has one of the best special teams in all of college football and then of course Bill Parker, their defensive coordinator, has been one of, if not the most, steady and best defensive coordinators in all of college football," Jake says. "In these games against teams that play a ton of zone coverage it becomes about identification knowing throwing into zones and spots and leading your receivers and I'm not as confident in Oregon QB Dante Moore doing that."
Impact of coaching changes on team performance
Interim head coaches are quietly crushing in their first game: 7-2 ATS this season. That's not magic; it's a motivational reboot and a dash of chaos the market struggles to price. Schemes tighten, locker rooms rally, and opponents lose prep certainty. If you're betting into that first-week window, you're aligned with a live trend backed by energy and surprise.
That surprise is the real edge. Opponents can't scout what they don't know, and teams with nothing to lose are dangerous in a one-game burst. That makes the first game under an interim a green light for measured risk, but only if the number hasn't already caught up.
"When a head coach gets fired, it becomes much more challenging for Alabama in this instance to prepare for LSU because how could you possibly know what to expect?" Jake says. "On top of the fact that LSU suddenly becomes a significantly more dangerous team because they truly have nothing to lose."
Quarterback performance under pressure and its impact on team success
Quarterback volatility wrecks tickets. Jake doesn't mince words: turnover-prone QBs in high-leverage spots will cost you. Miami's late-season slide is pinned on the quarterback's mistakes, a direct warning to avoid backing teams whose signal-caller doesn't protect the ball. In November, decision-making beats arm strength.
"As the season goes on, in big moments, Hurricanes QB Carson Beck is going to cost you games with bad decision-making," Jake says. "And that's just the reality of Miami season."
So, what does that mean for bettors? Track interceptions, fumbles, and near-misses (throws into traffic, late flat balls, sack-fumbles). You don't need advanced models to spot bad habits. If your QB reverts under pressure, downgrade his team in tight spreads and look to live-bet the other side after the first turnover.
College Football Playoff rankings and selection logic
Jake believes the College Football Playoff committee got it right, and the logic behind the controversial slots makes sense if you focus on full resumes, not just shiny records. Strength of schedule, quality wins, and how teams look now all matter. That approach also clarifies something else: a Group of Five team breaking into the playoff isn't just possible; it's inevitable with this framework.
When the committee values how you're playing now, contenders feel pressure to win with conviction, not just survive. That's where motivation meets margin. If you're tracking teams that need statements, it can push you toward spreads and team totals. For weekly edges that reflect the latest CFP read, keep an eye on our updated college football picks.
