It may feel like much longer than just two weeks since the LSU Tigers last took the field, getting physically embarrassed in the second half against Texas A&M and sealing Brian Kelly’s fate in the process.
But indeed, it has been only two weeks.
The Alabama Crimson Tide will quickly deliver a reminder of how things went two weeks ago, as they are ready to embarrass one of their biggest rivals.
My LSU vs. Alabama predictions expect another reminder for the Tigers that life can always get worse.
Read more in my college football picks for Saturday, November 8.
Our best LSU vs Alabama SGP for Week 11
Alabama has dominated SEC play so thoroughly that it holds a game cushion in the conference standings, thanks to tiebreakers over both Georgia and Mississippi, while Texas likely faces another loss.
But if the Tide wants to secure a top-four seed in the College Football Playoff regardless of the SEC title game outcome, they need to keep rolling through conference play.
Against LSU’s faulty offense — particularly wretched both in rushing the ball and in finishing quality drives — Alabama should be able to kick its rival while it is down.
The one credit the Tigers do deserve is a defensive ability to limit explosive plays. Realize LSU ranks No. 75 in defensive passing success rate and No. 79 in defensive rushing success rate, per CFB-graphs.com, but No. 33 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback against and No. 29 in EPA per rush against.
Logic that out, and it is clear: Opponents might succeed on a down-to-down basis against the Tigers, but they do not find chunk successes.
If needing down-to-down successes, Alabama should turn to tight end Josh Cuevas and running back Jam Miller.
Cuevas has cleared this prop in three of his last four games, falling short of making that four out of five conference games by exactly one yard, while Miller has cleared this prop in two of Alabama’s three most competitive SEC matchups.
LSU vs Alabama SGP
- Alabama -9.5
- Josh Cuevas Over 24.5 receiving yards
- Jam Miller Over 52.5 rushing yards
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