The New England Patriots will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in one of the most exciting matchups of Week 10.
Even with New England cruising to a 7-2 start, my early Patriots vs. Buccaneers predictions and NFL picks and are calling for Tampa Bay to show up in this tape-measuring matchup and cover the number on Sunday, November 9.
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Patriots vs Buccaneers predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Patriots vs Buccaneers spread pick: Buccaneers -2.5
While the New England Patriots have had a cakewalk schedule through nine weeks, they’ve also won the toughest test on their docket with a road victory over the Buffalo Bills in Week 5.
Now, the Pats take a six-game winning streak to Raymond James Stadium to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a marquee matchup of Week 10.
Of course, the Bucs are coming off their Week 9 bye, and also have a handful of statement wins on their ledger. I’m expecting the extra week of rest and preparation to be the difference in this game on Sunday.
The Pats are rolling, but this will be their toughest test since Week 5, while the Bucs should be healthier than they have been in awhile. I also expect the Tampa Bay defense to show up and play New England quarterback Drake Maye tough.
Of course, while the New England defense is showing off in most advanced metrics, the Pats do rank 28th in defensive DVOA and below average in yards per play despite facing the noted cupcake schedule.
Early Patriots vs Buccaneers total pick: Over 48.5
In addition to the highlighted question marks surrounding the New England defense, the Pats also rank 28th in pressure percentage and 23rd in pass rush win rate.
There’s a huge gap in Tampa QB Baker Mayfield’s numbers when pressured and when throwing from a clean pocket. Mayfield has thrown for 6.8 yards per attempt with a 53.4 completion percentage under pressure compared to respective 7.3 and 69.1% marks from a clean pocket.
His PFF passing grade also jumps from a 20th-ranked 47.1 to a 13th-ranked 82.4.
As a result, I’m expecting Mayfield to have a solid day commanding the Tampa offense and putting points on the board.
New England isn’t going to fall off the offensive map, either. The Pats rank 11th in offensive DVOA, seventh in EPA per play and seventh in points per game (26.3), after all.
Patriots vs Buccaneers odds
- Patriots vs. Buccaneers spread: Buccaneers -2.5
- Patriots vs. Buccaneers moneyline: Patriots +122, Buccaneers -144
- Patriots vs. Buccaneers Over/Under: 48.5
How to watch Patriots vs Buccaneers
- Patriots vs. Buccaneers matchup
- Date: Sunday, November 9, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Tampa, FL
- Venue: Raymond James Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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