LSU vs Alabama Player Props & Best Bets for College Football Week 11

Player	Pick
Ty Simpson	Anytime touchdown	+300
Harlem Berry	Over 45.5 rushing yards	-114
Ty Simpson	Under 1.5 touchdown passes	+152

Ty Simpson anytime touchdown

+300 at FanDuel

In several big moments this season, Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson has shown what he can do with his legs, including against Georgia earlier this year. The junior logged only four rushes for 12 yards, but one went for a touchdown. I can see a similar scenario unfolding in this matchup.

I projected this price at +256, so I am comfortable taking it at +300. As I wrote earlier this week, this will likely be one of the toughest passing defenses Alabama has faced all season.

They are solid across the board and do a good job of moving the pocket, hurrying opposing quarterbacks, and creating havoc. 

Even with that, I still expect Alabama to move the ball between the 20s because the LSU Tigers has struggled against the run.

That script creates chances for Simpson to turn pressure into points. In the red zone, where space is tight and coverage is strong, a designed keeper or a scramble can be the difference.

If Alabama establishes the run and forces LSU to commit extra bodies to the box, Simpson's legs become a real scoring threat. At this number, the value supports a play on Simpson to find the end zone.

Harlem Berry Over 45.5 rushing yards

-114 at FanDuel

LSU's rushing attack has been poor this season, ranking in the 100s nationally in EPA and lacking efficiency. The silver lining for the Tigers is that Alabama has not been a strong rushing defense either, which sets up a matchup of weaknesses that LSU can exploit on the ground.

This number on Harlem Barry looks a bit low. He is beginning to take the bulk of LSU's carries. Over the last two games, he logged 20 combined attempts, his highest two-game total of the year, and he delivered.

He averaged 6.6 yards per carry during that stretch and topped five yards per carry in the game before it. Most importantly, he cleared this posted number in both of those recent outings. The trend suggests his role is growing and his efficiency is holding as the workload increases.

Alabama enters this game ranked 71st nationally in EPA per rush allowed, which is below the standard we expect from them. That opens the door for consistent early-down gains and manageable third downs.

With Barry's usage rising and LSU likely leaning into the run to steady the offense, the path to another over is clear. I like the play at this price given both the matchup and the uptick in volume.

Ty Simpson Under 1.5 touchdown passes

+152 at FanDuel

Simpson has gone over this number every game, you say? Perhaps he is due, then. In all seriousness, I set the fair price for this prop at +122. That is a meaningful gap from the current number, so I cannot pass it up. 

Several factors drive the edge, but the idea is how this game should flow and which matchups Alabama will attack. Those point to a more conservative approach in short-yardage and goal-to-go situations, which strengthens the case.

The logic overlaps with the angle for Simpson to score. The most exploitable areas for Alabama are on the ground rather than through the air. Which begs the question? Why throw in a scenario where you don't need to?

If Alabama leans run-heavy near the goal line, Simpson's passing chances shrink in the very spots that typically boost passing volume and efficiency. Fewer red zone throws and more rushing attempts reduce the paths for him to clear this number.

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