We are coming down the stretch of the college football season. We've gotten the first set of College Football Playoff rankings. Conference races are tightening up.
And we are officially looking for teams on Quit Watch.
Who has already given up for the year? My college football best bets are looking at you, Deion Sanders. While the loser of Florida-Kentucky could be next. Meanwhile, oddsmakers may have forgotten Navy still has something to play for.
Read on for my college football best bets for Week 11.
For even more free Week 11 college football picks, check out Douglas Farmer’s college football predictions.
College football best bets Week 11
| Pick |  |
|---|---|
 Colorado Buffaloes TT Under 23.5 |
-114 |
 Navy Midshipmen +27.5 |
-110 |
  Florida/Kentucky 1H Under 23.5 |
-122 |
| 💲 All three parlayed | +534 |
Colorado team total Under 23.5
The fade of the Colorado Buffaloes is in full force.
The allure of Dieon Sanders has faded, as well as his effectiveness as a coach, and it appears like he’s lost the locker room. Because the last two weeks have been as ugly as it gets.
The Buffaloes were the ones to get trampled in a 53-7 loss to Utah. A game where Utes' starting QB Devon Dampier didn't play. They followed that up with a 52-17 loss at home to Arizona.
Sanders will play his last card heading into this week's matchup at West Virginia by starting highly touted QB prospect Julian Lewis.
The freshman went 9-for-17 for 121 yards and a touchdown in relief in last week’s loss to the Wildcats.
He’ll face off against a West Virginia Mountaineers team that is starting to find its groove. The Mountaineers may be 1-5 in conference play, but they have gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games, which includes a 45-35 outright win as 12.5-point underdogs against Houston last week.
West Virginia’s defense has been surprisingly solid, ranking 48th in opponent EPA per play and 55th in defensive success rate. You can throw on the Mountaineers a little bit, but I’m not sure Lewis will be up to the task, particularly in front of what should be a rowdy crowd in Morgantown.
Colorado has a team total of 23.5. The Buffs have averaged 18.3 points per game over six Big 12 games and have only topped this number one, in a 24-17 win over Iowa State.
I’m betting it’s another tough day when it comes to scoring and I’ll take the Under on their team total.
Navy +27.5
It felt like the Notre Dame Fighting Irish season was over before it began.
The Fighting Irish dropped the first two games of their season, albeit by a combined four points, and many had written them off. But six straight wins later, and Notre Dame is ranked 10th in the initial College Football Playoff rankings.
This means that if the Irish can run the table, there is a very good chance they will be able to return to the College Football Playoff. Next up, a rival that may have just had the CFP hopes dashed – the Navy Midshipmen.
Navy was undefeated and had its eye on an AAC title and a potential automatic bid to the CFP. But the Midshipmen suffered their first setback of the season last time out, losing to an upstart North Texas team 31-17.
While that’s a disheartening loss for Navy, I’m betting they get up for this game. Many people forget that this is a historic rivalry, so Navy should be up for this no matter what.
But this is also one of the best teams Navy has had in years, and it all starts with star QB Blake Horvath. He’s thrown for 1,143 yards with seven touchdowns while rushing for 926 and 13 scores. As a result, Navy ranks third in the country in offensive success rate and 24th in EPA per play.
Notre Dame has been playing good football, but it hasn’t played anyone of real consequence since Texas A&M all the way back in Week 2. The only similar QB the Irish have faced has been Marcel Reed in that A&M game.
Navy will be overmatched at the end of the day, but the Midshipmen will do their best to control the tempo of the game and with Notre Dame’s propensity for running the ball as well, there just won’t be enough possession for them to cover this massive number. Take the dog in this rivalry game.
Florida/Kentucky first half Under 23.5
Another under-the-radar rivalry takes place this weekend when the Florida Gators visit the Kentucky Wildcats.
Florida used to own this rivalry. But not so much lately. Kentucky has won four of the last seven matchups and three of the last four. This year is interesting because both teams have struggled thus far.
It cost Billy Napier his job, and Mark Stoops has a seat hotter than some freshly fried chicken.
Both teams are also 3-5, so a loss on Saturday means a bowl game is unlikely this season.
But there’s a reason both teams are in this position, and I’m betting on another ugly game here.
The one thing Florida has going for it is its defense. This is still an elite unit that creates pressure against the pass and stuffs the run. The Gators rank 28th in defensive success rate and 32nd in opponent EPA per play.
The run defense here is important. The Gators allow just 3.8 yards per carry and rank 24th in EPA per rush. It’s important because Kentucky essentially has no pass game. The Wildcats rank 118th in success rate on dropbacks and 96th on EPA per dropback.
Being one-dimensional vs. this Gators D is not a recipe for success, and they have already scored 13 points or fewer in four of their last five games.
Meanwhile, Florida’s offense is going to be disheartened following a 24-20 loss to rival Georgia. DJ Lagway has not developed as hoped, and the Gators also rely too much on the rush, which plays to Kentucky’s strength on defense.
Kentucky also has an edge playing at home and this game has ugly rock fight written all over it, particularly in the first half. Give me the first-half Under between these SEC rivals.
Triple Option Parlay for Week 11
Colorado team total Under 23.5
Navy +27.5
Florida/Kentucky first half Under 23.5
My weekly Triple Option column is 13-14 this season for -1.38 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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