Would you be interested in playing some college football player props in Week 11?
Let’s dive into the night slate of games, where I’m targeting the Under for two quarterbacks, Louisville Cardinals Miller Moss and UCLA Bruins Nico Iamaleava, facing run-funnel defenses.
Also, what does freshman phenom running back Harlem Berry have in store against Alabama?
Check out my player props and college football picks for the night games on Saturday, November 8.
Best college football player props for Week 11's late slate
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Miller Moss |
Under 273.5 passing yards | -114 |
 Harlem Berry |
Over 45.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Nico Iamaleava |
Under 195.5 passing yards | -114 |
Prop bet #1: Miller Moss Under 273.5 passing yards
The Louisville Cardinals have a potent offense averaging 33.8 ppg and bring a 7-1 record to Berkeley to face the California Bears in Week 11. The expectation is for the Cardinals (-18.5) to roll, so naturally, their players have experienced some inflation in their lines in the player prop market.
Take quarterback Miller Moss as an example. The USC transfer is having an admirable season, averaging 241.1 passing yards per game.
Does that justify a passing yardage prop of 273.5 in this matchup?
I’m not so sure. Cal is far more vulnerable on the ground (156.6 rushing yards per game allowed) than through the air (198.8).
The advanced metrics back that up: Cal is soft along the defensive line (136th in stuff rate) en route to a ranking of 97th in EPA per rush allowed, but is solid in the secondary (24th in EPA per pass allowed).
Louisville has been far more effective running the ball (18th in EPA) than throwing it (121st), so the path of least resistance is clear. Leading rusher Isaac Brown is injured, also causing some inflation, but the Cardinals have one of the deepest stables of running backs in the country.
Keyjuan Brown has been a stellar backup with 6.6 yards per carry and six touchdowns, and Duke Watson will return to the field for the first time in over a month.
Watson averaged 8.9 yards per carry a year ago, and his presence will be felt, and the cupboard is far from bare.
- Matchup: California vs. Louisville
- Date/Time: Saturday, November 7 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Location: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
- TV: ESPN 2
Prop bet #2: Harlem Berry Over 45.5 rushing yards
Interim head coach Frank Wilson has repeatedly stated in the lead-up to this game that the LSU Tigers will be implementing a youth movement over the last stretch of the season.
Freshman running back and former five-star recruit Harlem Berry’s name has come up an awful lot as an example of young talent that will be given a time to shine, so the expectation is for him to play a featured role in the offense this weekend against the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Berry was the number one running back recruit in the Class of 2025 and has seized his recent opportunity, carrying 20 times for 114 yards and a score across his last two contests.
Wilson has a personal connection with Berry’s father, so the combination of that, Berry’s eye-popping talent, and the ousting of Brian Kelly should lead to plenty of opportunities for the young back moving forward.
LSU has tried and struggled to get the ground game going this season. It looked perhaps the best it has all season in the first half against Texas A&M, and now, following a bye, the Tigers have a chance to make good on that improvement against a vulnerable Bama rush defense.
The Crimson Tide’s biggest weakness is in stopping opposing ground games, where they rank 116th in EPA per rush allowed and 125th in rushing explosiveness.
The defensive front has been softer (113th in stuff rate, 101st in line yards) than its talent would suggest, which is huge considering LSU’s offensive line has had its fair share of struggles.
- Matchup: LSU vs. Alabama
- Date/Time: Saturday, November 8 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium
- TV: ABC
Prop bet #3: Nico Iamaleava Under 195.5 passing yards
The Nebraska Cornhuskers are a binary defensive handicap in that they excel at shutting down the pass (128.3 passing yards per game allowed) but are vulnerable on the ground (161.6 rushing yards per game allowed).
The metrics back up the secondary, which has stellar rankings in EPA per pass (10th), passing success rate (12th), and passing explosiveness (fourth). The rushing defense has been gashed (106th in EPA per rush), making this a tried and true run-funnel unit.
UCLA Bruins quarterback Nico Iamaleava is given a passing yardage prop of 195.5 for Saturday night. That’s an interesting number considering the Bruins struggle to move the ball through the air (123rd in EPA per pass, 135th in passing explosiveness), and Nico averages 183.5 passing yards per game.
Nothing in this handicap indicates that Nico should have an above-average game, so I’m siding with the Under. He’s finished below this number in four of his last five games.
- Matchup: Nebraska vs. UCLA
- Date/Time: Saturday, November 8 at 9:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Rose Bowl
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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