It will be a raucous environment at Neyland Stadium on Saturday afternoon when Texas visits Tennessee, but our Texas vs. Tennessee expert picks are here to cut through the noise and identify the best value on the board.
Our Texas vs. Tennessee predictions and college football picks believe the Longhorns will walk away with a road win in a shootout by majority vote.
Texas vs Tennessee expert picks
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 Probability |
|
|---|---|
 Brad Powers: Texas -4.5 |
53% |
 Rob Paul: Over 54.5 |
50% |
 Colby Marchio: Texas -4.5 |
53% |
 Chris Vasile: Tennessee +5.5 |
53% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Brad Powers’ expert pick: Texas -4.5
Price: 53% at Kalshi
My power ratings have Texas winning by 5.8 points.
Texas was flat last week after the big win over Ohio State, and I expect a bounce-back effort from the offense here.
Tennessee true freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon has completed 72% of his passes with a 6-0 TD-INT ratio this year. However, he is taking a huge step up in competition here.
Brandon's yards per attempt figure concerns me. He averaged just 7.0 and 6.8 YPA, respectively, in his last two games, while the national average is 7.9.
Rob Paul’s expert pick: Over 54.5
Price: 50% at Kalshi
Tennessee has long been a solid Over play under Josh Heupel. The Volunteers are 40-28 to the Over since he took over in 2021, and while this year's team is a little more run-happy with a freshman QB in Faizon Brandon, they're still potent.
The Volunteers have one of the best running backs in the country (DeSean Bishop) playing behind a veteran offensive line that has Tennessee ranked fourth nationally in EPA per rush and Top 20 in success rate (51.4).
But with the other side of the ball still coming together (it often takes a year or two for a Jim Knowles defense to click), Texas will make big plays look routine. That should have Arch Manning fired up to take it to his uncle's alma mater, but the Longhorns' run game is where Steve Sarkisian can really cook.
Tennessee is just 91st nationally in EPA per rush on defense and gave up 24 points and 135 rushing yards to a Georgia Tech team that couldn't even run the ball against Colorado.
Colby Marchio’s expert pick: Texas -4.5
Price: 53% at Kalshi
People forget that at this time last year, Tennessee true freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon was heading to his final high school homecoming dance. Meanwhile, Arch Manning was coming off a 55-0 win over Sam Houston State, gearing up for what would eventually lead to a loss at The Swamp.
Manning has endured far more experience in these big moments than Brandon. The Rocky Top faithful will have the place going crazy, but the Volunteers have yet to be truly tested, and I don’t want this to be the game where I risk it with an unproven team.
Texas, meanwhile, has played and beaten a top-ranked Ohio State team. The best team Tennessee has played is Georgia Tech, which lost to a bad Colorado team.
This Texas defensive unit should be ready to give Brandon his official welcome-to-the-SEC moment.
Chris Vasile’s expert pick: Tennessee +5.5
Price: 53% at Kalshi
Texas is the No. 1 team in the country, but I'm not laying 5.5 points with the Longhorns at Neyland. These defenses have been remarkably close statistically, and Tennessee's pass defense stands out for me, giving up just 128 ypg through the air.
The difference for me is Tennessee's running game. The Vols are averaging nearly 300 rushing yards per game, giving them exactly what I want from a home underdog — the ability to control the clock, shorten the game, and keep Arch Manning on the sideline.
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How to watch Texas vs Tennessee
| Location | Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, Tenn. |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 |
| Kickoff | Noon ET |
| TV | ABC |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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