Texas Tech sits at No. 12 in the AP Top 25 heading into today's matchup against Colorado at Folsom Field on Saturday, Oct. 3. The Red Raiders are a 13.5-point favorite with kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
My Texas Tech vs. Colorado predictions focus on the Buffaloes keeping things competitive in a lower-scoring Big 12 matchup.
Check out our other college football picks for Week 5.
Who will win Texas Tech vs Colorado today? Pick: Colorado +11.5
I'll trade the Colorado Buffaloes down to +10.5 because there's reverse line movement in this game.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are drawing more action, including 58% of Covers.com's consensus picks, yet Colorado has fallen from being 15.5-point underdogs on the opener.
There's also an old-school college football handicapping angle where I fade a road favorite in a conference game. Texas Tech has faced Pro Football Focus' 119th-ranked schedule, yet owns only a +0.6 yards-per-play differential against FBS opponents, which isn't dominant enough for me to lay double digits on the road.
Plus, the Buffaloes are 8-2 ATS vs. ranked teams under "Coach Prime." That said, this is more of a lean and a combo leg, because the Under is my favorite look in this game.
COVERS INTEL: According to GameOnPaper.com, Texas Tech's early-down offensive efficiency grades in the 31st percentile nationally, and Colorado's in the 27th percentile.
TOP PICK
Texas Tech vs Colorado Over/Under pick: Under 50.5
The Under 50.5, down to 48.5, is my favorite look in this game because both defenses have an edge over the offenses. Colorado averages just 11.3 points against Power 4 opponents, and 51 is the second-most likely total in college football.
Colorado has one of the nation's least-explosive offenses, while both offenses rank in the Bottom 20th percentile in Havoc rate allowed, and both defenses generate above-average Havoc.
That should make it difficult for either offense to stay on schedule. Colorado averages only 3.7 yards per carry against FBS teams, exactly what Texas Tech allows, creating more obvious passing downs where Havoc can kill drives.
Texas Tech vs Colorado combo
This combo follows one game script: Colorado keeps it ugly and hangs around.
Neither offense has been efficient on early downs, both struggle to prevent Havoc, and Colorado lacks the explosiveness to turn this into a shootout.
That supports the Buffaloes catching nearly two touchdowns and the full-game Under. I'm also attacking the slow start, with these teams combining to average just 3.3 first-quarter points against FBS opponents, making Under 10.5 the natural third leg.
Texas Tech vs Colorado combo
- Colorado +13.5
- Under 50.5
- Under 10.5 1Q
Texas Tech vs Colorado prop: Under 10.5 1Q
As much as I want the first-quarter Over 10.5 to boost my combo payout, I can't justify it, so I'm taking the correlated first-quarter Under 10.5 instead.
Texas Tech averages just 2.3 first-quarter points against FBS teams, while Colorado averages 1.0. The Red Raiders have gone first-quarter Under in nine of their last 14 games, while the Buffaloes have done so in seven of 11.
I'll play the Under at 10.5, but pass at 9.5.
- Top picks: 8-10, -2.78 units
- Combos: 2-16, -10.25 units
Texas Tech vs Colorado market trends
The widget below tracks the smart money from trusted Kalshi traders for today's Texas Tech vs. Colorado matchup. The trading volume will pick up through the day with the smart money coming in closest to kickoff. Use the splits to help inform your Texas Tech vs. Colorado prediciton.
Texas Tech vs Colorado odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Texas Tech -13.5 | Colorado +13.5
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (53%) | Under 50.5 (52%)
- Moneyline: Texas Tech 83% | Colorado 20%
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Texas Tech vs Colorado weather
Temperatures will be in the mid-70s in Boulder Saturday with an eight mph wind and a slim chance of rain.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Texas Tech vs Colorado trend to know
The Buffaloes are 4-6 Over/Under against ranked teams under head coach Deion Sanders. Find more college football betting trends for Texas Tech vs. Colorado.
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How to watch Texas Tech vs Colorado
| Location | Folsom Field, Boulder, CO |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Texas Tech vs Colorado latest injuries
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