Missouri vs Georgia Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Beck Worth Backing in Week 10

Georgia's mercurial ATS performance has a number of game scripts in play for Week 10, but our college football picks think no matter how much Missouri competes, Carson Beck will leave his mark.

Douglas Farmer - Betting Analyst at Covers
Douglas Farmer • Betting Analyst
Nov 4, 2023 • 12:22 ET • 4 min read

Time to engage your better selves, Georgia Bulldogs. The two-time defending champions have not flexed much this season,  covering the spread in only two of their last six games. If they intend to reach full form before the SEC championship game, the time is now.

And two strong opponents await Georgia, beginning with the No. 12 Missouri Tigers. As 15-point college football odds underdogs, little is expected from Missouri on the road this weekend, but the Tigers did stress the Dawgs last season.

They just might do it again, as we discuss in our free college football picks and predictions for Missouri vs Georgia on Saturday, November 4.

Missouri vs Georgia best odds

Missouri vs Georgia picks and predictions

There are two views of this SEC East matchup. Either Missouri and quarterback Brady Cook will be able to stress Georgia to make Saturday afternoon entertaining, or the Bulldogs are about to act like the back-to-back champions they are.

In both instances, Georgia quarterback Carson Beck should produce.

The idea of a close game stems from the Bulldogs playing a defense that could be ripe for Cook to pick at. He excels against passive front-sevens, and Georgia generally uses them because its defensive line alone is good enough to create pressure.

Cook has put together quite an impressive season already, one under the national radar. He has completed nearly 70% of his passes while gaining 9.3 yards per attempt, throwing just three interceptions with 15 touchdowns. He could very well put up some points on the Bulldogs.

At which point, Beck would need to match. Some dated assumptions might think Georgia’s offense likes to bully opponents, but the truth is, the Bulldogs prefer to beat teams through the air, throwing more often than all but 15 other teams. If Georgia needs to outscore Missouri, it will do so via Beck’s arm.

Or, the Bulldogs simply blow out the Tigers. On some level, that’s what we all expect, right? As 15-point favorites, a three-touchdown victory wouldn’t surprise anyone.

A total of 55.5 makes it clear, any blowout would begin with Georgia’s defense, its line hustling Cook enough that Missouri loses all rhythm. That would create more possessions for Beck, more chances to crack open a 40.

The only two times the Bulldogs have covered a spread against an opponent this side of MAC quality, Beck threw for 389 yards and 314 yards. He has cleared 300 in four of the last five games, the exception being when he was able to coast a bit at Vanderbilt.

He should reach that mark again, regardless of how this game script develops.

My best bet: Carson Beck Over 287.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Not intended for use in MA.
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Missouri vs Georgia same-game parlay

Carson Beck Over 287.5 passing yards

Over 56.5 

Daijun Edwards anytime touchdown

Reconsider those two possible game states. Either Cook finds success and Missouri puts up some points or Georgia’s offense has plenty of opportunities to hang points. This total is low enough that both scenarios should have the points to clear it.

If the Tigers are competitive, reaching the mid-20s should be enough to carry their fair share of this total. If they’re getting routed, then scoring just two touchdowns will suffice. In both instances, expect that out of Cook.

Adding Georgia running back Daijun Edwards to reach the end zone is simply a cheap way to raise this parlay’s payout by 25%. Edwards has scored eight times in six games, failing to cross the goal line in just one game he played.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Missouri vs Georgia spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread has hardly moved since opening with the Bulldogs favored by 15 on Sunday, ticking up to -16 on Monday before dropping back to -15.5 on Tuesday and -15 on Thursday, but it never had much of a chance of reaching two touchdowns.

This might be just the right amount of an edge to catch Georgia’s attention. When favored by four touchdowns, the Bulldogs have gone 1-4 against the spread this season, but when just a touch above two touchdowns, they’re 2-1 ATS.

After this total opened at 53.5 points, it quickly rose to 56 on Sunday. It fell to 54.5 early in the week before rising back up to 55.5 across the board.

Missouri vs Georgia betting trend to know

Missouri is 5-1 ATS in its last six games, covering those spreads by an average of eight points better than expected. Find more college football betting trends for Missouri vs Georgia.

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Missouri vs Georgia game info

Location: Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA
Date: Saturday, November 4, 2023
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET

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