Saturday night’s bowl game action features an SEC vs. Big 12 matchup, as the LSU Tigers take on the Houston Cougars at NRG Stadium.
There are several notable absences, especially on the defensive side of the ball for LSU, which has me buying low on the Over for a game with a total of 42.5.
See why I’m taking that contrarian angle with my LSU vs. Houston predictions and college football picks for December 27.
LSU vs Houston predictions for the Texas Bowl
Who will win the Texas Bowl?
The Houston Cougars will pick up their first bowl victory since 2022, capping a momentum-building season under Willie Fritz. They aren’t a particularly eye-catching team, but that’s exactly Fritz’s method of operation.
The Cougars have found ways to win football games this year — whether it's pretty or not — and they now get to finish the season with a de facto home game against an unmotivated SEC squad.
LSU vs Houston best bet: Over 42.5 (-110)
This game has a low total as the LSU Tigers were an Under team through and through (3-9 O/U) and will play backup quarterback Michael Van Buren in the bowl game.
The Mississippi State transfer struggled mightily to end the regular season, and LSU’s defense was legit (17th in EPA per play), so the expectation is for a low-scoring game against a Houston Cougars team allowing just 21.8 ppg.
It’s hard to overstate the defensive absences, however. The Tigers will be without their two best players in the secondary (Mansoor Delane, AJ Haulcy), three impact linebackers (Whit Weeks, West Weeks, Harold Perkins), and the top pass rusher (Jack Pyburn).
Houston’s offense will be full-go with quarterback Conner Weigman looking to build momentum after announcing his return to the program in 2026. The Cougars racked up at least 400 total yards in three of their last four games and are capable of scoring against a depleted LSU defense.
Houston’s defense may have good numbers (36th in EPA per play), but it’s important to keep in mind the strength of schedule (72nd, per ESPN’s FPI). LSU’s offense fell flat to end the year, but Van Buren is a better player than he’s shown in Baton Rouge (7.4 YPA with Mississippi State, 5.9 with LSU).
LSU vs Houston same-game parlay
Motivation is an important handicapping factor come bowl season, and boy, it doesn't look pretty for LSU. Lane Kiffin is coming to town, and some young players will look to make a favorable impression, but the majority of LSU’s lineup is full of veteran players who don’t have much to prove or play for.
Keep in mind, this is an LSU team that had National Championship aspirations and instead is finishing its season with a depleted roster against a Houston team that wasn’t a Power Conference school until recently.
Willie Fritz is building momentum with Houston, improving the record from 4-8 in Year One to 9-3 this season, and he’d love to motivate his team to a 10th victory.
LSU vs Houston SGP
- Over 42.5
- Houston -2.5
LSU vs Houston odds
- Spread: LSU +3.5 (-115) | Houston +3.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: LSU +130 | Houston -150
- Over/Under: Over 41.5 (-110) | Under 41.5 (-110)
LSU vs Houston trend to know
LSU has cashed the Over in five consecutive postseason games. Find more college football betting trends for LSU vs Houston.
How to watch LSU vs Houston
| Location | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date | Saturday, December 27, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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