Our Houston vs. Texas Tech expert picks break down the best angles for Friday's Big 12 matchup.
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Houston vs Texas Tech expert picks
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 Probability |
|
|---|---|
 Brad Powers: Houston +4.5 in First Half |
52% |
 Rob Paul: Texas Tech -7.5 |
48% |
 Chris Vasile: Under 53.5 |
53% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Brad Powers’ expert pick: Houston +4.5 in First Half
Price: 52% at Kalshi
The Houston Cougars only played FCS Southern last week (won by 71) and should have been preparing for this game the last two weeks.
Meanwhile, Texas Tech is playing on a short week after a long trip. Both teams have played Oregon State already. Houston won by 13 at home, Texas Tech won by 11 on the road. Neither team covered. However, the box scores tell a much different story.
Houston outgained Oregon State by 131 yards and the SP+ adjusted scoring margin was 17.0. Meanwhile Texas Tech was out-gained by 120 yards and the adjusted scoring margin was only 7.5. We've seen a huge line move in this game as Houston was catching as much as 10.5 points earlier this week.
Instead of chasing the full-game steam, I prefer taking Houston in the first half.
Rob Paul’s expert pick: Texas Tech -7.5
Price: 48% at Kalshi
Neither team looked impressive against Oregon State, but the Red Raiders were at least on the road and playing in pouring rain. And with Tech's advantage in the trenches, I think they'll win this game decisively with a strong second half at home under the Friday night lights.
Cougars QB Conner Weigman has a history of struggling against pressure — top 20 in the P4 in turnover-worthy play rate last season (3.9%) and posted just a 72.2% adjusted completion rate — and the Red Raiders have 33 pressures in two games with a defense that's fourth nationally in early-down EPA per play.
A lead should allow Shiel Wood's pass rush to pin its ears back and hunt Weigman, while the Red Raiders offense can lean on its veteran O-line and deep running back room.
Chris Vasile’s expert pick: Under 53.5
Price: 53% at Kalshi
I’m playing the Under in a matchup featuring two defenses that have been extremely difficult to run against.
Houston is allowing just 10 rushing yards per game, while Texas Tech is surrendering only 65. That could force both offenses away from what they do best and create longer third-down situations. Texas Tech has also held nine straight opponents to 18 points or fewer at home.
I’m expecting something closer to 27-21 than a normal Big 12 shootout.
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How to watch Houston vs Texas Tech
| Location | Galaxy Stadium, Lubbock, TX |
| Date | Friday, Sept. 18, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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