Houston’s ground game and Texas Tech’s retooled front create several intriguing angles in this Big 12 matchup for my Houston vs. Texas Tech prop picks. I'm focusing on Makhi Hughes, Cameron Dickey, and Amare Thomas, with matchup data pointing to value in both the rushing and receiving markets.
Let's examine my best college football picks before kickoff.
Best Houston vs Texas Tech props
Prop pick #1: Houston RB Makhi Hughes Over 53.5 rushing yards
I'm willing to invest in Houston Cougars running back Makhi Hughes' rushing prop to Over 55.5 yards because Texas Tech lost four game-wreckers from last year's team on its defensive front, and the left side of Houston's offensive line is elite.
Red Raiders second-team All-American defensive tackle Lee Hunter, first-team All-American EDGE David Bailey, first-team All-Big 12 defensive end Romello Height, and Chuck Bednarik Award-winning linebacker Jacob Rodriguez all went to the NFL this offseason.
Meanwhile, Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranks Cougars left tackles Alvin Ebosele 23rd out of 540 Division I tackles in run-blocking grade, left guard Shadre Hurst second out of 539 guards, and Anthony Boswell first among 264 centers. Hughes leads Houston in carries (25) and rushing yards (142) after gaining 98 yards against Oregon State.
Prop pick #2: Texas Tech RB Cameron Dickey Under 43.5 rushing yards
The Under for Red Raiders running back Cameron Dickey's rushing yards prop is playable down to 40.5 if it comes with a plus-money payout.
Dickey ranks 395th out of 407 halfbacks in college football in overall grade, according to PFF. He's especially bad in the passing game, which could hurt his snap count moving forward. He's only logged two catches this season after 25 in 14 games last year.
Red Raiders second-string running back J'Koby Williams has put up a team-high 10 catches this campaign. If Texas Tech is trailing in the second half, it'll run the ball less and Williams should get more snaps since he's a better pass-catcher.
Prop pick #3: WR Amare Thomas Over 71.5 receiving yards
Give me Cougars wide receiver Amare Thomas's Over for his receiving yards prop up to 75.5.
He's gained at least 76 receiving yards in six of his previous 12 games dating back to last season. Thomas was named first-team All-Big XII last year while leading Houston in receiving yards (966) and touchdown catches (12). He returned to school with his quarterback, Conner Weigman.
Thomas runs most of his routes out of the slot, and Texas Tech nickelback John Curry is the team's lowest-graded corner, per PFF. Lastly, Rodriguez was one of the country's best linebackers in pass coverage last season, so it'll be easier for Thomas to get open in the middle of the field.
- Prop picks: 6-9-0, -3.45 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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