There's no shortage of college football under the Friday night lights in Week 1, with eight games on the slate, including three featuring Top 25 programs.
While my Week 1 Friday night football best bets and college football picks are heavily focused on game totals with so many uneven matchups tonight, my favorite play of the day is to back Michigan State to do something Rutgers couldn't do last night: take care of business against a MAC team.
Friday night college football picks for Week 1
| Matchup | Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|
 San Jose Statevs  Eastern Michigan |
-2.5 |
53% |
 Indiana Statevs  Purdue |
⬇️ u56.5 | 52% |
 North Carolina A&Tvs  Georgia State |
⬇️ u61.5 | 50% |
 UTEP vs  Oklahoma |
⬇️ u51.5 | 49% |
 LIUvs  Kansas |
-41.5 |
52% |
 Toledovs  Michigan State |
-9.5 |
54% |
 Miami vs  Stanford |
⬆️ o47.5 | 53% |
 Fresno State vs  USC |
⬇️ u51.5 | 49% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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CFB Friday night picks this week
San Jose State vs Eastern Michigan: Eastern Michigan -2.5
Both teams took the field in Week 0 and looked much improved over last season. However, San Jose State has to travel 2,400 miles to Ypsilanti on a short week to play an Eastern Michigan team that flexed its continuity advantage last week against a West Coast program.
The Eagles are Top 25 nationally in returning production (62%), with one of the most experienced QBs in the Group of Six, Noah Kim. Kim, along with a strong pass-catching corps led by Nick Devereaux, should be able to move the ball against a SJSU defense that was 120th in EPA per pass last season.
San Jose State meanwhile had the vast majority of its Week 0 production against USC come after the Trojans pulled their starter mid-third quarter.
Our Chris Vasile is also taking EMU as part of his college football moneyline picks.
Indiana State vs Purdue: ⬇️ Under 56.5
Taking the Under here is all about fading Purdue's ability to score 50+ points against an FCS program.
Last season, the Boilermakers were 97th in EPA per rush, 113th in EPA per pass, and 123rd in early-down EPA per play. That led to Barry Odom's team averaging 18.8 PPG and finishing ranked 104th on offense by SP+. (In their only FCS game last year, they scored 34 points.)
This year, Purdue is running it back at QB with Ryan Browne, and the newness around him could lead to a slow start. Five of the Boilermakers' top six receivers are transfers, as well as three of the starting offensive linemen.
Indiana State is no scoring threat, either. Its offense is ranked 291st by SP+.
North Carolina A&T vs Georgia State: ⬇️ Under 61.5
There's an argument to be made that Georgia State is the worst team in the FBS. Head coach Dell McGee is 4-20 over the past two seasons with a program that lacks the resources to succeed, which is why the Panthers scored more than 27 points just twice last season.
Georgia State was ranked 103rd in third/fourth-down success in 2025 and 133rd in starting field position. And while the Panthers did manage 37 points in last season's FCS matchup, their opponent, Murray State, put up 21, and the Under (63.5) hit.
North Carolina A&T is on par with Murray State. Last season, the Aggies averaged 20.5 PPG, and they've scored fewer than that in six of their last seven, including last week against Morgan State.
With a North Carolina A&T offense ranked 467th by SP+, the Under should be in good shape.
UTEP vs Oklahoma: ⬇️ Under 51.5
There's a reason our Colby Marchio likes UTEP to score Under 7.5 points in his UTEP vs. Oklahoma prediction; Oklahoma has one of the best defenses in college football.
The Sooners ranked Top 10 on defense last season in the following: EPA per pass, EPA per rush, available yards percentage, early-down EPA per play, third/fourth-down EPA per play, and average third-down distance.
Brent Venables' defense returns many of the key cogs from last year's unit, including projected Top 100 picks on the defensive line in David Stone and Taylor Wein. Those two will wreck a UTEP O-line starting a mix of G6, FCS, and JUCO transfers.
For the Under to be in play, OU can't score too many points, but I think Venables will pull his offense early, with the Sooners playing Michigan in Week 2.
Our Colby Machio shares his best predictions for tonight's clash.
LIU vs Kansas: Kansas -41.5
It's a tough situation for LIU to open its season by traveling 1,200+ miles to play Kansas in Lawrence a week after the Sharks had to head 1,500+ miles to Grand Forks, N.D., to lose by 21 to North Dakota.
While the Jayhawks are no Big 12 power, they do tend to take it to FCS programs. Since 2022, Lance Leipold's team has beaten four FCS teams by an average margin of 40.2 points.
While Leipold is breaking in a new QB in Isaiah Marshall, the return of Andy Kotelnicki to the staff and transfer additions like Nik McMillan and Dylan Edwards should help the young QB cook a defense ranked 210th by SP+.
Kansas also has a defense ranked 10th nationally in returning production (67%).
Toledo vs Michigan State: Michigan State -9.5
As our Geoff Clark pointed out in his Toledo vs. Michigan State prediction, the turnover Toledo is dealing with will be too much in their season opener under new head coach Mike Jacobs.
The Rockets lost more than 30 players to the transfer portal when Jason Candle left for UConn, and they rank 130th in returning production (33%).
Jacobs, who comes from the FCS level, leaned heavily on his roots to fill out Toledo's two-deep this season, and Michigan State can expose the talent disparity. While the Spartans are also under a new head coach in Pat Fitzgerald, the former Northwestern bench boss loaded up on proven FBS players.
The Spartans' run game, led by UConn transfers Cam Edwards and Ben Murawski, will carry MSU to a double-digit-point win at home.
Our Geoff Clark shares his best predictions for tonight's game.
Miami vs Stanford: ⬆️ Over 47.5
While Miami is a 24.5-point favorite, I ranked this matchup No. 8 in my college football Top 25 predictions for watchability because there will be offensive fireworks.
The Hurricanes brought in a loaded transfer class, highlighted by Darian Mensah and Cooper Barkate. Mensah was second in the country in TD passes last year at Duke (34), and Barkate was his top target, finishing ninth in receiving yards (1,106).
Those two add to an offense that returns one of the best receivers (Malachi Toney) and running backs (Mark Fletcher Jr.) in the country. But as I said in my Miami vs. Stanford prediction, the Cardinal should do some scoring too.
Miami's defense is ranked 74th in returning production (51%), and Stanford's offense looked steady in Week 0 with Davis Warren and Micah Ford.
Check out my full card for tonight's game.
Fresno State vs USC: ⬇️ Under 51.5
Obviously, USC is known for its offense under Lincoln Riley, but Fresno State is going to slow this game down to stay in it against a Top 25 Trojans team.
In Matt Entz's first season leading the Bulldogs last year, they ran the ball (37.5 attempts per game) more than they threw it (28.7). That disparity should only increase with their top two running backs returning and a new starting QB (Jayden Mandal).
Fresno State's defense is also among the best in the G6. It was No. 2 in the country in EPA per pass last season, which will make this a more difficult matchup for Jayden Maiava with a crew of freshman pass catchers.
Our JD Yonke is also on the Under in his Fresno State vs. USC prediction.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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