A new betting market was created a couple of years ago when the College Football Playoff expanded to 12 teams, as many sportsbooks now offer “To Make and Miss the Playoffs” odds.
Earlier this week, using my power ratings, I gave you my favorite Power 4 value bets to reach the CFP.
Now, I’m looking at my favorite college football picks to miss the playoffs from the Power 4.
Power 4 Value Bets to Miss the CFP
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Texas A&M to miss the playoffs |
-155 |
 LSU to miss the playoffs |
-190 |
 Michigan to miss the playoffs |
-350 |
Texas A&M to miss the playoffs
Although the Texas A&M Aggies are coming off one of their most successful seasons in the last 30 years, replicating that success in 2026 will be difficult.
The Aggies had a school-record 10 players drafted, and the position group hit hardest was their offensive line, which saw four players take to the NFL. Add in three more draft picks on the defensive line, and the Aggies won’t be nearly as formidable at the line of scrimmage this year.
That means Texas A&M will have to rely on quarterback Marcel Reed more this year. I have my doubts, as Reed and the Aggies feasted on a weak schedule last year. Against the two most talented defenses Reed faced (Texas and Miami), he had zero touchdown passes and four interceptions as the Aggies lost back-to-back games after starting 11–0.
Texas A&M will still be underdogs in as many as four games this year (at LSU, at Alabama, at Oklahoma, and at home vs. Texas). My power ratings are only calling for 8.2 wins.
Like LSU, even if the Aggies overachieved and won nine games, they would still be an underdog to make the playoffs.
LSU to miss the playoffs
According to 247 Sports, the LSU Tigers signed the No. 1 transfer portal class this year, led by quarterback Sam Leavitt, who was the top overall transfer player. That transfer class, along with the hype surrounding new head coach Lane Kiffin, has created unrealistic expectations in Baton Rouge.
Remember, Leavitt suffered a right foot injury that ended his season early last year. He underwent surgery this spring to remove the pins from his initial procedure and missed most of the spring.
Can Leavitt hit the ground running in the summer with a completely new team, offense, and coach? Will he be as mobile as the last two years, when he rushed for 749 yards and 10 TDs? I have my doubts.
Kiffin also tried to temper expectations this spring, saying, “Things don’t happen overnight. There’s a ton of work to get the program back up to where everybody around here wants it to be.”
LSU will play as many as seven teams in my preseason Top 30 this year, and my power ratings only project LSU to win 8.5 games. Even if the Tigers overachieve that number and win nine games, they would still be an underdog to make the playoffs.
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Michigan to miss the playoffs
The same power ratings that have the Michigan Wolverines billed as a Top 15 team are also projecting only 7.7 wins. The Wolverines play one of the most difficult schedules in the country under new head coach Kyle Whittinhgam, including six games against teams in my Top 25 (Oklahoma, Iowa, Penn State, Indiana, at Oregon, and at Ohio State).
I project Michigan to be close to a TD underdog at home vs. Indiana, and a double-digit underdog on the road at Oregon and at Ohio State. I don’t expect wins in any of those three games. A 9-3 team is likely out of the playoffs, even if it’s a “Blue Blood” like Michigan.
To lose this bet, Michigan would have to run the table as a single-digit favorite vs. Oklahoma, Iowa, at Minnesota, and Penn State, while also taking care of business in the other five games.
The Wolverines would also likely have to pull an upset over a Top 5 team, and that is too tall an order for a program in transition.
Eight teams are listed at minus-money to make the playoffs (via FanDuel)
- Notre Dame (-700)
- Indiana (-350)
- Miami (-300)
- Oregon (-290)
- Ohio State (-260)
- Georgia (-230)
- Texas (-190)
- Texas Tech (-180)
If there is one team that might be worth a small bet to miss the playoffs, it’s the Texas Longhorns at +155.
Quarterback Arch Manning and head coach Steve Sarkisian are overhyped in the markets. Remember, this is a Texas team that lost three games last year, including to 4–8 Florida. The Longhorns also needed OT wins at Kentucky and at Mississippi State.
Currently, my power ratings project Texas to be the favorite in 11 games, with the exception coming versus Ohio State. However, six of those favorite roles are by seven points or less.
I could see the Longhorns slipping up a few times and finishing 9–3.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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