Michigan State vs Maryland Odds, Picks and Predictions: Is This Low Big Ten Total Low Enough?

The Big Ten is so deep this season that on any given night, any team in the conference can beat the other, especially when it comes to Big Ten East programs like Michigan State and Maryland.

The college basketball odds have the Spartans as 1.5-point road favorites at the Xfinity Center against the Terrapins in a clash of two of the best defenses in the country. Like many of the Big Ten West’s football games in recent memory, this isn’t the type of game that will attract fans looking for a high-scoring shootout.

Find out where my best bets lie in our college basketball picks for Michigan State vs. Maryland on Sunday, January 21.

Michigan State vs Maryland best odds

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Michigan State vs Maryland picks and predictions

When Kevin Willard’s Maryland Terrapins take the court, expect the game total to be low and the Under to always be in play. Maryland has had just five of its 18 games have a game total above 140 this season and with a spicy Michigan State Spartans defense coming to town, this one is just 135.5.

Despite the low total, it’s hard to bet against the Under when this matchup will be all about hard-nosed defense and a lack of consistent threats on offense. These teams are very similar, both are 11-7, both rank Top 50 in points allowed, and both rely on one explosive and undersized guard to do the bulk of the scoring.

Maryland is averaging just 70.8 points per game this season, 266th in the country, and ranks 154th in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Terps have only played the 134th-toughest schedule in terms of opponents' defense, and yet Willard’s program has still struggled to score.

It’s been able to juice up its average points per game against mid-majors this season, but against high majors, Maryland is only scoring 63 points per game. It’s been an offense that’s asked guard Jahmir Young to carry the load on a nightly basis. 

The former Charlotte star is averaging 20.8 per night, however, he’s shooting just 32.6% from three, and even when he balls out, the Terps struggle to score. In seven Big Ten games, he’s averaging 24.3 points per game, but Maryland is scoring just 65.4 points per game.

Outside of Young, forwards Julian Reese and Donta Scott have been solid threats in the front court, combining for 24.3 points. Behind them, there’s next to nothing when it comes to consistent scoring.

This has been one of the poorest shooting programs in the country, hitting an abysmal 41.6% of its shots from the floor, 27.9% of its three, and 70.2% of its free throws. There have also been few playmakers outside of Young, who averages 4.1 assists, with Maryland ranking 334th in assists per game with only 11.

This team has won games by slowing it down, it’s ranked 300th in adjusted tempo, putting the ball in Young’s hands, and leaning on stellar defense to shut down opposing teams. The Terps are allowing just 64 points per game, 20th best in the country, and rank 23rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Maryland has only allowed more than 70 points three times this season and has held Big Ten teams to just 66.8 points. In its two games against Top-10 teams — Purdue and Illinois — it managed to hold both programs to just 67 points.

It’s a defense that’s been able to force turnovers with 7.2 steals per game — Young, Reese, and DeShawn Harris Smith each average over a steal per game — and block shots. Maryland is 20th in the country with 5.2 blocks per game led by Reese’s 2.2 per outing, fourth most in the Big Ten.

Opponents are shooting only 40.3% against Maryland and taking just 56.3 shots per game. When you play the Terrapins, expect fewer possessions and tougher shots, a mix the Spartans have struggled with this season.

Michigan State is among the best unranked teams in the country, but its offense has held it back at times this season. It’s 278th adjusted tempo and has asked Tyson Walker to do almost everything on the offensive end.

While the Spartans are scoring 77.1 points per game behind Walker’s team-leading 20 per night, that drops to 73.2 per game against high majors. Behind Walker, AJ Hoggard and Malik Hall are the next two most consistent threats for Tom Izzo. Those two combined to average 22.3 points, but are both shooting under 32% from three.

The poor 3-point shooting of the starting lineup has deterred Michigan State from shooting from behind the arc. It ranks just 295th in threes per game (19.1) and wants to burn the shot clock while driving to the rim or pulling from mid-range.

That recipe has worked for Izzo’s program this season though thanks to its defense. The Spartans are holding teams to 65.6 points per game and rank 24th in adjusted defensive efficiency despite playing the 15th-toughest schedule based on opposing offenses.

Teams are shooting terribly against Michigan State this season. Sparty has held opponents to 39.2% from the field, 45.6% from two, and 30.5% from three — all three rank Top 50 nationally. It’s also provided a good mix of steals (7.1) and blocks (4.3) per game to put pressure on ball handlers and drivers.

My best bet: Under 135.5 (-110 at bet365)

Michigan State vs Maryland same-game parlay

Under 135.5

Tyson Walker Under 17.5

Jahmir Young Under 22.5

+280 at bet365

As great as Walker has been for Michigan State this season, he’s struggled to an extent when the Spartans have played better defenses. 

Izzo’s program has played three teams ranked in the Top 30 of adjusted defensive efficiency this season — Rutgers, Illinois, Arizona — in those games, Walker is averaging 16 points. Maryland is among the best this team has seen on the defensive end this year.

Young’s been one of the most prolific scorers in the Big Ten and has been putting up huge numbers thanks to his usage and ability to get to the free throw line. Michigan State only puts opponents on the free throw line 18 times per game though and has been suffocating scorers both from three and from the mid-range this season. 

In seven Big Ten games, no player has scored more than 22 points against Michigan State.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Michigan State vs Maryland spread and Over/Under analysis

Some books opened with Michigan State favored by as many as 2.5 points, but most have come down to between -1 and 1.5.

The Spartans are 9-8-1 ATS this season, but just 2-4-1 in the Big Ten. Maryland is 7-11 ATS and 3-4 in the Big Ten but is 3-0 ATS in its last three conference games.

The game total hasn’t moved much after opening between 134 and 135.5 at most books, it’s expected to be a low-scoring game between these two defenses. 

Michigan State is 9-9 betting the Over this season and 4-3 in the Big Ten, but the Terps are 7-11 betting the Over and 3-3 in the Big Ten.

Michigan State vs Maryland betting trend to know

Maryland has cashed the Under in 21 of its last 35 games (+6.70 units / 17% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. Maryland.

Michigan State vs Maryland game info

Michigan State vs Maryland key injuries

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