Two of college basketball’s elite square off tonight when the Michigan State Spartans and Kentucky Wildcats face off in the first game of the State Farm Champions Classic at Madison Square Garden.
The Wildcats will look to pick up their first signature win of the season, while the Spartans hope to repeat their performance against Arkansas last week.
My Michigan State vs Kentucky predictions and college basketball picks explain why there is value in the total on Tuesday, November 18.
Want to make sure Covers shows up often in your Google search results and Discover feed?
Simply click here and add Covers as one of your "source preferences".
Michigan State vs Kentucky prediction
Michigan State vs Kentucky best bet: Under 153.5 (-110)
It was a track meet between the Kentucky Wildcats and the Louisville Cardinals last week, as the teams combined to score 184 points. And the Wildcats thrive when they can play up-tempo, as evidenced by their 371 points scored through four games.
But Tom Izzo knows this. And the Michigan State Spartans will set out to dictate the pace of play, just as they did against the Arkansas Razorbacks.
That game easily had the slowest pace of any the Hogs have played this season, as the Spartans picked up a 69-66 win. Arkansas had just 68 possessions, exactly what Michigan State has averaged per game through three contests, ranking 232nd in adjusted tempo
Izzo’s squad is struggling badly from outside, relying on the nation’s best assist rate and an elite offensive rebounding output to find points, as it ranks just 255th in eFG%. Most of its baskets are coming at the rim, and it'll work Kentucky to death at that end to get mismatches.
On the flip side, the Wildcats aren’t the same offensively without Jaland Lowe, as evidenced by their half-court struggles when he wasn’t on the floor against the Cardinals. And Kentucky struggled when Louisville got physical.
Those factors will lead to a much slower pace than we’re used to seeing from the Wildcats, while Michigan State’s offensive rebounding will lead to longer possessions. I’ll take the Under down to 151.5 points.
Michigan State vs Kentucky same-game parlay
Izzo has compared Jeremy Fears to Spartan legend Mateen Cleaves, and has given his point guard the freedom to call his own plays at times. Fears has a 49.4% assist rate and at least nine dimes in all three games.
Kentucky struggled to handle high-ball screens against Louisville, and often doubled, leading to 20 assists for the Cardinals on 31 made baskets. Repeating that behavior will have Fears easily surpassing his total.
Denzel Aberdeen has been Kentucky’s best perimeter player and has multiple assists in every game. He’ll have the ball in his hands more given Lowe’s absence, and Michigan State will likely try to force him to give it up if he attacks the basket.
Michigan State vs Kentucky SGP
- Under 153.5
- Jeremy Fears Over 7.5 assists
- Denzel Aberdeen Over 1.5 assists
Our beyond the arc SGP: Ready to Spartan
It’s almost always a tight game when Michigan State and Kentucky get together, and this shouldn’t be any different. The slower pace and physicality from the Spartans will help keep things tight, while the Wildcats are still figuring out how to operate in the half-court without their point guard.
Michigan State vs Kentucky SGP
- Under 153.5
- Jeremy Fears Over 7.5 assists
- Denzel Aberdeen Over 1.5 assists
- Michigan State +5
Michigan State vs Kentucky odds
- Spread: Michigan State +5 (-110) | Kentucky -5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Michigan State +190 | Kentucky -230
- Over/Under: Over 153.5 (-110) | Under 153.5 (-110)
Michigan State vs Kentucky betting trend to know
Michigan State has hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 36 games (+15.00 Units / 38% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. Kentucky.
How to watch Michigan State vs Kentucky
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date | Tuesday, November 18, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Michigan State vs Kentucky key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
