Iowa State and Tennessee clash in the Sweet 16 tonight, and it’s basically a mirror match.
Both teams lean on elite defenses, and each is built to take away exactly what the other wants to do most.
My Tennessee vs. Iowa State predictions and March Madness picks break down why I expect a low-scoring matchup on Friday, March 27.
- UPDATE: Added prediction for who will win.
Tennessee vs Iowa State prediction
Who will win Tennessee vs Iowa State?
Iowa State: It’s not like either team is going to find much joy offensively, but if one team has a more sustainable path, it’s probably the Cyclones. They also have, in my estimation, the better coach from a pregame gameplanning standpoint. Give me Iowa State in an ugly affair.
Tennessee vs Iowa State best bet: Under 140.5 (-116)
Operating under the assumption that Josh Jefferson is unavailable, this Tennessee Volunteers defense is a nightmare for the Iowa State Cyclones.
The two core tenets of the Cyclones' offense are perimeter cutting actions and inside-out actions. Both will get clamped, as the Vols defend them at a 98th percentile level.
Iowa State’s defense smothers the things that Tennessee relies on the most in the halfcourt. Post-ups, which make up 20% of the Vols' offense, are defended by ISU at the 99th percentile.
I’d play the Under down to 134.
COVERS INTEL: Iowa State allowed the second-highest rate of threes in the Big 12 this season, but Tennessee doesn’t shoot them. They finished the year ranked 330th in 3-point rate.
Tennessee vs Iowa State same-game parlay
Milan Momcilovic is the player who's received the biggest usage increase in the wake of Jefferson’s absence, so I’ll take a shot on him dropping at least one dime. He’s done so in both games without Jefferson and will be involved in significantly more ball screens without him on the floor.
I’ve ridden Ja’Kobi Gillespie Over 2.5 rebounds throughout the tournament, and it’s treated me well. It certainly helps that we should see an increase in 3-point shots (and longer rebounds) if Jefferson is unable to go.
Tennessee vs Iowa State SGP
- Milan Momcilovic Over 0.5 assists
- Ja’Kobi Gillespie Over 2.5 rebounds
- Iowa State moneyline
Our Big Dance SGP: Heise holds his own
More long rebounds means more rebound opportunities to guards, and, given that I’m expecting both teams to struggle to score, I expect a lot of rebound opportunities in general. I like Nate Heise to get to four or more boards.
I'll finish this off with Nate Ament Under 15.5 points. The Cyclones are exceptionally good at shutting off the main offensive valve for a team, and for the Vols, that’s unquestionably Ament.
Tennessee vs Iowa State SGP
- Under 140.5
- Milan Momcilovic Over 0.5 assists
- Ja’Kobi Gillespie Over 2.5 rebounds
- Nate Heise Over 3.5 rebounds
- Nate Ament Under 15.5 points
Tennessee vs Iowa State odds
- Spread: Tennessee +3.5 | Iowa State -3.5
- Moneyline: Tennessee +170 | Iowa State -200
- Over/Under: Over 140.5 | Under 140.5
Tennessee vs Iowa State betting trend to know
Iowa State have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.50 Units / 38% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Tennessee vs. Iowa State.
How to watch Tennessee vs Iowa State
| Location | United Center, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Friday, March 27, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
Tennessee vs Iowa State key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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