Texas A&M-CC vs Alabama Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Tide Crashes Over the Islanders

The No. 1 seed Alabama Crimson Tide take on the No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday afternoon. 

The Islanders beat Southeast Missouri in the First Four to earn a trip to the Round of 64 but things get exponentially tougher for them against a Crimson Tide squad that is ranked as the No. 1 team in the country. 

This is the biggest spread so far in March Madness odds, with the Tide installed as 23.5-point chalk. Here are my best free Texas A&M-CC vs. Alabama college basketball picks for March 15. For more, check out our March Madness picks.

Texas A&M-CC vs Alabama best odds

Texas A&M-CC vs Alabama picks and predictions

The Islanders average an impressive 78.2 ppg against Division 1 foes but they've benefitted from playing against one of the weakest schedules in the country. 

They have faced just three opponents from Power-Six conferences this season and were shut down in all of those contests. They were held to just 44 points by Mississippi State in their season opener, scored just 58 points against Oklahoma State, and were limited to 61 points by a fast-paced Arizona squad. 

The Tide also play at a fast tempo but do an excellent job on the defensive end of the floor thanks to their length and athleticism. They are first in the country in opponent effective field goal percentage (41.5%) and locked down opponents during the SEC Tournament holding each foe below 64 points. 

The Islanders shot just 39% from the floor against SE Missouri in the First Four and were fortunate to get to the line for a whopping 35 free-throw attempts.

The Islanders offense was clearly affected by the loss of point guard Terrion Murdix (13.4 points and a team-high 5.4 assists per game) who suffered a season-ending injury in the Southland Tournament Final. 

Without Murdix, Texas A&M-CC won't be able to eclipse its team total against a Bama team that ranks third in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom.

My best bet:  Texas A&M-CC team total Under 65.5 (-112 at FanDuel)

Texas A&M-CC vs Alabama spread analysis

Alabama is the No. 1 ranked team in the AP Top 25 and is installed at +650 to win March Madness for good reason. The Tide are 29-5 with an average scoring margin of plus-13.7 ppg and they rolled through the SEC Tourney will all three of their victories coming by double digits. 

The Tide are 19th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency which makes them one of just three schools in the country to be ranked in the Top 20 on both ends of the floor. 

Alabama is led by All-American forward Brandon Miller, who averages 19.6 points and 8.3 rebounds on 45/40/86 shooting splits. Guard Mark Sears (12.5 ppg) is the glue guy while Noah Clowney (10.1 ppg, 8.0 rpg) and Charles Bediako (1.8 blocks in just 20.6 minutes per game) provide size down low. 

The Tide have been favored by 13 points or more on six occasions this season and went 4-2 against the spread in those contests. 

The Islanders won their second-straight Southland Conference championship after going 14-4 in the regular season and winning a pair of games in the conference tournament. They've gone 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games but it's worth mentioning that their strength of schedule ranked just 331st in the country according to the NET Rankings.  

The Islanders are an experienced team with the majority of their rotation made up of seniors including leading scorers Trey Tennyson (15.6 ppg) and Isaac Mushila (14.4 ppg, 9.7 rpg). However, they are extremely undersized (354th in the country in height efficiency per KenPom) which will be a problem against a Bama team that is 11th in both height efficiency and rebound rate. 

Texas A&M-CC vs Alabama Over/Under analysis

The Islanders are a high-scoring team that push the pace and rank just 224th in adjusted defensive efficiency. That has resulted in Texas A&M CC surrendering 72.9 ppg to Div 1 foes. That's bad news against a Bama side that ranks fourth in the country in adjusted tempo and puts up 82.2 ppg against Div 1 opponents. 

That said, it's tough to take the Over on a bigger number in this contest when you consider that Alabama has the talent and attitude to shut down Corpus Christi's weapons. 

The Tide held SEC opponents to 66.6 ppg on just 35.8% shooting and now face a team coming out of the extremely weak Southland Conference that happens to be missing a catalyst on offense.

Texas A&M-CC vs Alabama betting trend to know

The Under is 4-0 in Alabama's last four games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas A&M-CC vs. Alabama.

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