The first monster upset of the 2026 March Madness tournament took place in the second round of 32, as the No 9 seed in the South Region — Iowa — upset the No. 1 seed Florida 73-72 after Alvaro Folgueiras hit the go-ahead three with about four seconds remaining.
Florida, which was the defending champion, became the first No. 1 (or No. 2) seed to fall in this year's tournament, leaving No. 1 seeds Michigan and Arizona as co-favorites on the March Madness odds board, followed by Duke (No. 1 seed in the East) and Houston (the highest remaining seed in the South).
Latest March Madness odds after Florida upset
| Team |  |
Next Opponent |
|---|---|---|
 Michigan |
+300 | No. 4 Alabama |
 Arizona |
+325 | No. 9 Utah State |
 Duke |
+400 | No. 5 St. John's |
 Houston |
+700 | No. 3 Illinois |
 Purdue |
+1400 | No. 11 Texas |
 Illinois |
+1400 | No. 2 Houston |
 Iowa State |
+1600 | No. 6 Tennessee |
 UConn |
+2500 | No. 3 Michigan State |
 Michigan State |
+3000 | No. 2 UConn |
 St. John's |
+3000 | No. 1 Duke |
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How these odds have shifted
Following Florida's early exit, we saw Michigan — who were the favorites heading into Sunday's action — move from +325 to +310, while Arizona went from +350 to +325.
Duke, the East's No. 1 seed (which faces the South Region winner in the Final Four) moved from +475 to +400, while Houston — the highest seed left in the South with the Gators gone — moved from 9/1 to +700.
West No. 2 Purdue, who faces a Cinderella in 11th-seeded Texas in the Sweet 16, moved from +1600 to 14/1, while Illinois, which faces Houston in the next round, went from 16/1 to +1400.
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Past March Madness winners
(Opening odds courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Champion | Opening odds | Runner-Up |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 |  Florida |
+8000 | Houston |
| 2024 | Connecticut |
+1100 | Purdue |
| 2023 | Connecticut |
+1600 |  San Diego State |
| 2022 |  Kansas |
+2000 |  North Carolina |
| 2021 |  Baylor |
+800 |  Gonzaga |
| 2020 | No tournament (COVID-19) | N/A | N/A |
| 2019 |  Virginia |
+1800 |  Texas Tech |
| 2018 |  Villanova |
+1200 | Michigan |
| 2017 | North Carolina |
+2400 | Gonzaga |
| 2016 | Villanova |
+2000 | North Carolina |
| 2015 | Duke |
+1000 |  Wisconsin |
