The Minnesota Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards for the long haul, which means the rest of the roster will need to step up when the Golden State Warriors visit Target Center on Wednesday, Oct. 28.
My Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions and NBA picks call for Minnesota to cover the spread for a fifth straight game thanks to strong performances from Jonathan Kuminga, Ayo Dosunmu, and Rudy Gobert.
I’m also picking Steph Curry to hit the Over on his points prop when these two Western Conference teams clash tonight.
TOP PICK
Warriors vs Timberwolves prediction: Timberwolves -3.5
I’m backing the Minnesota Timberwolves, and I’ll trade this spread up to -4.5.
The Timberwolves went 12-9 SU and 13-8 ATS in 21 games without Anthony Edwards last season.
This season’s team added a true floor general in LaMelo Ball, and the addition of Jonathan Kuminga to play alongside Jaden McDaniels gives Minnesota two long and athletic forwards to crash the glass, close out on perimeter shooters, and stop transition offense.
The Golden State Warriors’ roster doesn’t have size or depth, particularly in the frontcourt rotation. That should mean defensive anchor Rudy Gobert will control the paint and limit second-chance looks.
Minnesota can still put up points without Ant Man, as Ball, Kuminga, McDaniels, Gobert, and spark plug Ayo Dosunmu are all capable scorers.
COVERS INTEL: The Wolves’ offense was only negligibly worse with Edwards sidelined last season, but the defense was much improved. In 21 games without Ant Man, Minnesota’s Offensive Rating fell from 117.6 to 115, but its Defensive Rating improved from 115 to 109.5.
Warriors vs Timberwolves combo
Dosunmu picked up the slack for Edwards in a big way last season. Across seven games with Ant Man sidelined in 2025-26, Dosunmu averaged 29.4 PRA and cleared 25+ six times.
He’s reached that mark twice in four games off the bench with Edwards this season, and he’s expected to start tonight, which should mean more opportunities to stuff the stat sheet. I’ll trade this line up to 25.5.
Kuminga hasn’t cleared 25 PRA with Minnesota yet this season, but he’s started four straight games while averaging a career-high 29.8 minutes. His already-significant role should grow tonight, and Golden State ranks 28th in Defensive Rating.
I’m also locked in on the "revenge" factor, as relations between he and the Dubs soured tremendously before his departure.
Warriors vs Timberwolves combo
- Timberwolves -3.5
- Ayo Dosunmu Over 24.5 points + rebounds + assists
- Jonathan Kuminga Over 24.5 points + rebounds + assists
Warriors vs Timberwolves player props
Warriors player prop: Stephen Curry Over 24.5 points
I projected this price closer to 51%, so I’m happy to get value on this trade at 47%.
Curry has scored 23, 24, and 24 points in three games this season. He’s come within a bucket of clearing this line in all three games, and two of the contests were blowouts in which he averaged only 24 minutes.
Tonight’s matchup with Minnesota should be closer, and Curry should push for 30+ minutes, which should lead to 25+ points.
Chef Curry has scored 25+ in five straight and seven of his last eight matchups with the Timberwolves, and he’s averaged 26 against them in his career.
The future Hall-of-Famer is the focus of Golden State’s offense, and he and Yaxel Lendeborg will have to do the heavy lifting tonight.
Timberwolves player prop: Rudy Gobert Over 11.5 rebounds
Gobert is one of the league’s most consistent rebounders, and I’ll trade his rebounds prop up to 12.5.
Minnesota’s starting center has corralled 12+ rebounds in three of four games this season, averaging 14.3. He pulled down 20 against the Cleveland Cavaliers in his last game out, battling Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley in the paint.
Gobert was dominant against a strong Cleveland frontcourt, but Golden State doesn’t have the personnel to contend with Gobert underneath, as they’ll be playing small ball with Draymond Green, Lendeborg, and the aging Al Horford.
- Top picks: 3-4, -1.16 units
- Combos: 0-7, -7 units
Warriors vs Timberwolves odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Warriors +3.5 (48%) | Timberwolves -3.5 (53%)
- Moneyline: Warriors 40% | Timberwolves 61%
- Over/Under: Over 227.5 (50%) | Under 227.5 (51%)
For the full slate of NBA matchups, check out our NBA odds board!
Warriors vs Timberwolves trend
Minnesota has covered in four straight games to open the season. Find more NBA betting trends.
How to watch Warriors vs Timberwolves
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026 |
| Tip off | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | League Pass |
Warriors vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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