Wednesday’s 12-game slate is loaded with marquee matchups for our NBA picks, including Thunder vs. Mavericks, Lakers vs. Clippers, and Warriors vs. Timberwolves.
My NBA moneyline picks target value across the board, plus a three-leg combo featuring Denver, New York, and the Lakers.
NBA moneyline picks: Oct. 28
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Hornets Pistons |
71% |
 76ers Pacers |
42% |
 Heat Hawks |
43% |
 Wizards Cavaliers |
79% |
 Magic Raptors |
66% |
 Nuggets Pelicans |
63% |
 Warriors Timberwolves |
32% |
 Knicks Bulls |
72% |
 Rockets Bucks |
29% |
 Spurs Jazz |
84% |
 Thunder Mavericks |
25% |
 Lakers Clippers |
63% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Expert NBA moneyline picks: Oct. 28
Hornets vs Pistons: Pistons
This is the second leg of a back-to-back for Detroit, but the Pistons were an NBA-best 12-2 straight-up last season with no rest, boasting a +10.0 scoring margin.
The Pistons also won and covered all three meetings against Charlotte last season.
76ers vs Pacers: Pacers
Although All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton is returning from an injury that sidelined him all of last season, Indiana has more roster continuity than Philly, which underwent major changes this offseason.
The Pacers love to push the pace in transition, and LeBron James and Joel Embiid aren't always quick to get back on defense.
Heat vs Hawks: Heat
I'm buying low on Miami, which can't be this bad, right?
The winless Heat should bring max effort for this game, and Atlanta ranks 27th in defensive rebounding rate and last in defensive field goal make percentage at the rim, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
Wizards vs Cavaliers: Cavaliers
Washington point guard Trae Young is one of my least favorite players in the NBA, Anthony Davis is injury-prone, and rookie wing A.J. Dybantsa is questionable after missing the start of the season.
Cleveland is 8-0 SU against Washington since hiring head coach Kenny Atkinson and has won 14 consecutive meetings overall.
Magic vs Raptors: Raptors
The Raptors are healthier, with Kawhi Leonard their only notable absence. The Magic, on the other hand, will be without two starters Wednesday: guard Jalen Suggs and forward Paolo Banchero.
Nuggets vs Pelicans: Nuggets
Denver has won seven straight meetings against New Orleans, which ranks 26th in defensive rating.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com, the Nuggets went 21-4 SU against teams with bottom-10 defenses last season.
Warriors vs Timberwolves: Warriors
These teams live and die by the three, and Golden State has a better wide-open 3-point-attempt rate on both ends of the floor.
Furthermore, Minnesota is easier to defend with Anthony Edwards sidelined, especially when the team relies too heavily on isolation basketball. The T-Wolves rank 25th in assist rate this season.
Knicks vs Bulls: Knicks
Chicago ranks 25th in defensive rating, while New York went 24-4 SU against bottom-10 defenses last season, sporting an NBA-best +15.8 net rating in non-garbage time, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.
The Bulls are also 0-4 in expected wins based on point differential.
Rockets vs Bucks: Bucks
Most regular-season NBA games are won by the team that hits the most threes, and Milwaukee has a better wide-open 3-point-attempt rate on both ends of the floor.
Milwaukee's starting five is holding its own, while Houston's bench currently sits 26th in points per game.
Spurs vs Jazz: Spurs
Utah lost starting forward Jaren Jackson Jr. to a torn meniscus in a loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, and forward Lauri Markkanen left earlier in that game with an injury.
Having cluster injuries in your frontcourt against Victor Wembanyama is a doomsday scenario.
Thunder vs Mavericks: Mavericks
Oklahoma City's depth will be tested, with starting guard Cason Wallace and All-Star wing Jalen Williams both sidelined for the foreseeable future.
Dallas second-year wing Cooper Flagg is already a top-20 NBA player. Flagg and Kyrie Irving give the Mavs a puncher's chance against anyone, and I like the number we're getting with the underdog.
Lakers vs Clippers: Lakers
The Lakers lead the NBA in offensive rating through their first three games, while the Clippers will be without two starters: wing Brandon Ingram and power forward Rui Hachimura.
Per CleaningTheGlass.com, the Clippers are 28th in defensive shot profile, so the Lakers will get a bunch of good looks Wednesday.
Today's NBA moneyline combo
Nuggets Knicks Lakers
This three-leg moneyline combo backs Denver, New York, and the Lakers in spots where each team should have a clear offensive advantage. All three are facing opponents with early defensive concerns, creating favorable matchups for teams that have shown they can consistently punish weaker resistance.
Denver and New York have both handled these types of opponents well in the past, while the Lakers enter their matchup in strong offensive form against a shorthanded Clippers team.
Rather than laying bigger point spreads, the moneyline route keeps things simple and asks each favorite to do one thing: take care of business against a team that could have trouble getting enough stops.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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