The Minnesota Timberwolves pushed the Los Angeles Lakers to the brink over the weekend, taking a 3-1 lead in the series with two dramatic fourth quarters.
Tonight's Timberwolves vs. Lakers predictions expect Los Angeles to fight back before going into the night. Find out more in my NBA picks for Wednesday, April 30.
Who will win Timberwolves vs Lakers Game 5?
With Luka Doncic and LeBron James, some faith needs to be put in the Lakers with their backs against the wall. The eight-point shift in the spread from Game 4 underscores that faith.
The Timberwolves should win this series, but Los Angeles should pull off one more win.
That faith is only furthered when recognizing the three days off and how that should benefit the Lakers going into Game 5. One of these teams counts a deep bench and a young rotation as advantages.
A longer layoff between games lessens those Timberwolves’ edges.
Timberwolves vs Lakers prediction
My best bet: Over 209.5 (-110 at bet365)
Playoff basketball showed up right away this year, with officials giving physical defense a longer leash and thus skewing games toward their Unders.
But sportsbooks have begun to adjust.
Of the first 26 playoff games, 19 hit their Unders, including the first two games of this series. Of the six games on Sunday and Monday, only one hit its Under. The last two games of this series topped their totals by 12.5 and 20 points.
And yet, this total has not adjusted from Games 3 and 4. Given the entire playoff trend, that makes some sense.
But given the desperation that the Los Angeles Lakers need to show, this Over is a no-brainer.
The Lakers’ defense has been lackluster since Luka Doncic fully entered the rotation, ranking No. 17 in defensive rating from March 1 to the end of the regular season. This should not have surprised anyone. LA has no inside presence to rely on, certainly not one to help cover up Luka’s defensive lapses.
For much of the time, the Lakers’ offense made up for those woes. It was not stellar, but it was good enough.
Now it needs to be stellar. Unable to trust its defense, Los Angeles needs to purely outscore the Minnesota Timberwolves to stay alive in these playoffs.
Luka and LeBron James should take that upon themselves. The pair combined for 65 points in Game 4, and there are no signs of the generous whistle slowing down for LeBron after he took 18 free throws in that last-minute loss. Meanwhile, Luka keeps chucking from deep, going 5-for-12 on Sunday.
The Timberwolves have done their part this series, cashing their team total Over in three of four games. Desperation should assure the Lakers push this game toward its Over, and a shootout may be their only hope at keeping their season alive a few more days.
Timberwolves vs Lakers same-game parlay
Over 209.5
Luka Doncic Over 31.5 points
Jaden McDaniels Over 5.5 rebounds
The Lakers made a decision when they backed out of their trade for Hornets’ center Mark Williams. They decided to diminish some of Luka’s best skills for a season, presumably to land a better center or put together a better deal this summer. That may pan out in the long run, but it is costing LA in this series.
Doncic’s forays into the lane no longer put defenders into the peril that makes Luka so lethal. With no reliable rim runner, those defenders are not in as much space. They simply focus on Doncic.
He is not finding assists in the lane. Instead, he is shooting floaters and pull-ups. Compared to facing the Timberwolves last postseason, Doncic is taking 3-pointers on a smaller share of his shots. It is not that he is taking significantly fewer threes — 10.6 per game in that series a year ago vs. 9.5 thus far in this series. It is that he is passing less often once inside.
Doncic passing less often means Doncic scoring more often, averaging 35.3 points in this series when not actively battling illness.
The other cost of not having a reliable rim runner is that the Lakers give up rebounds. In fact, Doncic has been their best rebounder in this series.
Meanwhile, Jaden McDaniels is bigger than anyone on LA’s roster aside from Jaxson Hayes. There is a reason McDaniels has averaged 7.25 rebounds in this series, highlighted by nine in Game 1 and 11 in Game 4.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Timberwolves vs Lakers odds
Timberwolves vs Lakers live odds
Timberwolves vs Lakers opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +5.5 | Los Angeles -5.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota +190 | Los Angeles -230
- Over/Under: Over 211.5 | Under 211.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Timberwolves vs Lakers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Moving this spread by eight points compared to Game 4 is a bit extreme, especially when realizing it moved 9.5 points from Game 3. Such a hefty move is a nod toward LA’s desperation, but it is a bucket more than homecourt advantage should have justified.
- Furthermore, Minnesota prevailed ATS in both Games 3 and 4. Shouldn’t some adjustment have been made toward the Timberwolves, rather than this significant jump?
- Dropping this total a couple of points since the market opened argues for some faith in Minnesota, despite that spread overreaction.
Timberwolves vs Lakers trend
Minnesota has hit its Team Total Over in 33 of its last 50 games (+13.2 units, 23% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Lakers.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Lakers
| Location | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Wednesday, 4-30-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Timberwolves vs Lakers latest injuries
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