Carlos Rodon headlines the series finale as the New York Yankees, a 59% favorite on the moneyline, look to complete a sweep of the Minnesota Twins this afternoon.
Rodon’s edge over Zebby Matthews shapes my Yankees vs. Twins predictions for Wednesday, Sept. 16, which back New York on the moneyline, lean Under the total, and target a Yankees slugger to go deep.
Read more in my free MLB picks, and don't miss first pitch at 1:40 p.m. ET from Target Field.
Who will win Yankees vs Twins today: Yankees moneyline
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Carlos Rodon gives the New York Yankees the clearest advantage in this matchup, and I’m comfortable backing the Bombers up to 61% rather than asking them to cover the run line.
Rodon enters with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP, having allowed only six earned runs across his last five starts, and he held the Mets to one earned run while striking out eight over 6 1/3 innings his last time out.
The Minnesota Twins counter with Zebby Matthews, who owns a 4.98 ERA while allowing 23 home runs in 119 1/3 innings. September has been especially rough, with nine earned runs and four homers across his first two starts of the month (7 1/3 innings).
Recent form points the same way. The Yankees are 7-3 over their last 10 games with a plus-15 run differential, while the Twins are 3-7 with a minus-29 mark over the same span.
COVERS INTEL: Rodon has yet to allow more than three runs in a single start all season, and he owns a 2.25 ERA across five outings since returning from the injured list.
Yankees vs Twins Over/Under pick: Under 7.5
Rodon gives New York a strong chance of suppressing Minnesota’s offense, and the Under up to 50% is good value.
The Twins have scuffled against left-handed pitching, posting just a .662 OPS at home against lefties over the last 30 days, and Rodon has held opponents to a .177 batting average and a .294 slugging mark this season.
Matthews does not need to dominate for the Under to cash. Five reasonably competitive innings would give this game a clear path toward staying below eight runs.
The most likely Under script has Rodon controlling Minnesota while New York scores enough to win without breaking the game open. Something around 4-2 or 5-2 fits both the Yankees moneyline and the Under without forcing the two picks to depend on the same outcome.
Yankees vs Twins home run prediction: Ben Rice
Ben Rice is my preferred home-run target against Matthews, and the 23% price makes the matchup appealing.
Rice has 38 home runs this season and has done most of his damage against right-handed pitching, with 28 homers and a .565 slugging percentage in those matchups, while Matthews has allowed 13 home runs to left-handed hitters with a 5.68 ERA against them.
The pitch mix strengthens the case. Matthews uses his four-seam fastball roughly 38% of the time, giving Rice plenty of chances against a pitch he has crushed, slugging .851 against four-seamers this season.
This price is what makes Rice the play for a quarter-unit. At 23%, the market is asking for less than a one-in-four chance of a home run, and I put his fair probability closer to 25%.
- ML/RL picks: 4-8, -4.40 units
- Over/Under picks: 9-3, +5.59 units
Yankees vs Twins weather
The weather is working against the offenses slightly today, with a high of just 68 degrees and a 7 mph breeze blowing in from right-center field.
Yankees vs Twins odds
- Moneyline: Yankees 59% | Twins 42%
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 | Twins +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Yankees vs Twins trend
Minnesota has gone 7-16 over its last 23 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Twins.
How to watch Yankees vs Twins and game info
| Location | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, Twins.TV |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Carlos Rodon (6-3, 2.94 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher | Zebby Matthews (9-10, 4.98 ERA) |
Yankees vs Twins latest injuries
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