Tonight, the Dallas Mavericks host the New Orleans Pelicans at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. Dallas has won four of its last five heading into this game, but New Orleans has been similarly hot recently, as they had won and covered in four straight before losing to Chicago on Wednesday.
Will the Mavericks keep trending in the right direction after a poor start to the year? Find out in our Pelicans vs. Mavericks picks and predictions for Friday, February 12.
New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks Betting Preview
Injuries
Pelicans: No injuries to report.
Mavericks: No injuries to report.
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Betting Trend to Know
The Pelicans are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Mavericks.
NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonDallas went from -2 to -3.5 late last night at DraftKings, dialed back to -2.5 early this morning and spent most of the day at -3, where the number is as of 4:15 p.m. ET. The Mavericks are getting 58 percent of tickets and 64 percent of money on the point spread. The total dipped from 233.5 to 232, although the Over is taking 69 percent of bets/82 percent of money.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAgainst the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Mavericks have won four of their last five games and are finally showing signs of life. Dallas was miserable to start the season, looking nothing like the squad that played so well in a playoff series against the Los Angeles Clippers inside the bubble. Now, we’re starting to get a glimpse of that team.
One reason the Mavericks are playing better is that Kristaps Porzingis is starting to shape up a bit. Porginzis hit rock bottom on February 4, when the Warriors attacked him nonstop and beat the Mavericks by 31 in Dallas. Porzingis looked like he was stuck in mud on defense, but he has responded somewhat nicely since then. Porzingis has averaged 20.0 points and 9.0 rebounds per game in Dallas’ last three games, and he has looked a bit more comfortable defensively.
Porzingis’ play will be crucial in this meeting with New Orleans, as he’s going to be going up against Steven Adams and Zion Williamson. If Porzingis isn’t up for this one, he’ll be in trouble. However, those two guys also have to guard him. Adams is a bit too slow to cover him on the perimeter, and Zion is a bit short, making it easy for Porzingis to shoot over him. That’ll be something to watch.
The Pelicans also don’t have an answer for Luka Doncic, who has been playing some great basketball on both ends of the floor this season. Luka isn’t quite shooting well from beyond the three-point line, but he’s getting to the basket with ease and the Pelicans aren’t well-equipped to change that. He’s also doing his usual great work as a passer, and he’s even improved as a defender. Doncic is competing hard on that end, and he’ll likely make Brandon Ingram’s life difficult here.
PREDICTION: Mavericks -2.0 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The Pelicans and Mavericks have both had their struggles this season, and most of those have come on the defensive end. These teams just don’t do a good job of guarding their opponents, which is why New Orleans is 25th in the NBA in defensive rating and Dallas sits at 26th.
Meanwhile, the Pelicans are eighth in the league in offensive rating, and while the Mavericks are just 17th in the NBA, they do have a ton of firepower. Overall, this just seems like a game that will feature more scoring than it will stops.
PREDICTION: Over 232.5 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
The Pelicans have generally struggled against ball-dominant stars this season, with Zach LaVine’s 46-point performance on Wednesday being the most recent example. New Orleans just doesn’t have any wings that can go out and lock up an opposing team’s best player, which isn’t exactly a great sign heading into a meeting with Dallas.
Luka has already had 10 games with at least 29 points this season, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he’s able to do that again here. He’s a bit too physical with the ball in his hands for a guy like Ingram to check him, and he is too quick for somebody like Zion.
PREDICTION: Luka Doncic Over 28.5 Points (-108)
Pelicans vs Mavericks Betting Card
- Mavericks -2.0 (-110)
- Over 232.5 (-110)
- Luka Doncic Over 28.5 Points (-108)
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