Grizzlies vs Spurs Picks and Predictions: Grizzlies Regain Roar

Memphis has stumbled a bit over its past few games, but now rested and healthy, there's little reason the Grizz should be challenged by San Antonio. Find out why we're shaking the recency bias with our Grizzlies vs. Spurs NBA betting picks.

Douglas Farmer - Betting Analyst at Covers
Douglas Farmer • Betting Analyst
Jan 26, 2022 • 08:49 ET • 4 min read
Ja Morant Memphis Grizzlies NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Even though the San Antonio Spurs are finishing off a back-to-back and are struggling toward a 30-win season, they are barely underdogs tonight against the Western Conference’s darlings, the Memphis Grizzlies. These oddities happen in the slogging weeks of a long NBA season, but they still stand out, nonetheless.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Grizzlies at the Spurs on Wednesday, January 26.

Grizzlies vs Spurs odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Grizzlies opened as 3.0-point favorites late Tuesday night, but before the sun could rise anywhere on Wednesday, it had moved up to -3.5. The total opened at 227.5 points before moving to 228.0 at some shops.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Grizzlies vs Spurs predictions

Predictions made on 1/26/2022 at 4:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Grizzlies vs Spurs game info

Location: AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
Date: Wednesday, January 26, 2022
Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Southwest, Bally Sports Southeast

Grizzlies vs Spurs betting preview


Grizzlies: Brandon Clarke PF (Questionable), Tyus Jones PG (Out), Dillon Brooks SG (Out).
Spurs: Keita Bates-Diop SF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog, all since Jan. 10, a stretch that includes four games at home. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Spurs.

Grizzlies vs Spurs picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Something smells. The Grizzlies are relatively healthy and they have had a couple days off, meaning there is no reason to expect any players to rest tonight. Meanwhile, the Spurs beat up on the Rockets on Tuesday, a cruise of a win but still one that required 24 more minutes out of Dejounte Murray than Ja Morant has had to play this week.

Looking a bit further into the past, Memphis has covered the spread in seven of its last 10 games, compared to San Antonio doing so in only three of its last nine.

The better team should be favored by more than a bucket when its opponent is playing its third game in four nights and has already been falling short of expectations. Then why is this spread so small?

Perhaps because the Grizzlies are only 2-3 ATS in their last five, not to mention 2-3 straight-up, a stretch that happened to coincide exactly with the end of Memphis’ 11-game winning streak. Putting too much stock in this brief down spell, though, is welcoming recency bias. Let’s instead ignore the stench of this line and put faith in the season of work that has pushed the Grizzlies into the No. 3 seed in the West while the Spurs falter toward the lottery.

Prediction: Grizzlies -3 (-110)

Overlook San Antonio’s rout of cellar-dwelling Houston on Tuesday and suddenly no Spurs game has broken a total of 228 points in their last six. Bookending that streak? Another high-scoring contest with the Rockets.

Not surprisingly, Houston has the worst defensive rating in the league this season, while Memphis’ rating ranks No. 9.

Tonight should be another offensive struggle for San Antonio, largely because it is not playing the porous Rockets. And as explosive as Morant & Co. can be, only two of the Grizzlies’ last seven games would have hit this Over.

Prediction: Under 228.0 (-110)

The couple days off for the Grizzlies may have been needed. The highs of their 11-game winning streak were always going to come to an end. Following that initial loss with games on alternating days — four games in seven nights — never gave Memphis a thorough chance to regain its footing, particularly in that those games came against the Bulls, the Bucks, the Nuggets and the surging Mavericks. Denver and Dallas may be behind the Grizzlies in the standings, but no one will argue their quality regardless.

San Antonio’s quality can be argued. In fact, it should be. And now that Memphis has caught its breath for a few days, the Spurs’ lack of quality will give the Grizzlies plenty of chance to return to the form that won those 11 straight games.

When the spread is as close as a single bucket, winning the game should instill enough confidence that Memphis will also cover. If that is not enough, then remember that the Spurs have failed to cover as home underdogs four straight times in the last two weeks.

Pick: Grizzlies -3 (-110)

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